Wednesday, 14 January, 2026
Bangladesh’s economy posted a stronger performance in the first quarter (Q1) of the 2025–26 fiscal year, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerating to 4.50 percent on a point-to-point basis in constant prices, according to provisional estimates.
The latest quarterly figures indicate a significant improvement compared with the same period last year, when GDP growth stood at 2.58 percent, reflecting a broad-based recovery led by the industrial sector, alongside gains in agriculture and services.
In current prices, GDP in Q1 of FY26 is estimated at Tk 13,853,433 million (Tk 13,853 billion), up from Tk 12,401,032 million (Tk 12,401 billion) in Q1 of FY25, signalling a substantial expansion in nominal economic activity year-on-year.
Quarterly-based estimates also place GDP growth for the full FY25 at 3.72 percent in constant prices. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) noted that these quarterly figures differ from the provisional annual GDP estimate for FY25, a discrepancy that will be resolved using internationally accepted benchmarking methods once final annual figures are compiled.
Agriculture rebounds
The agriculture sector returned to growth in Q1 of FY26, expanding 2.30 percent in constant prices, reversing the 0.60 percent contraction recorded in the same quarter of FY25. The recovery reflects improved crop yields and a gradual resurgence in allied activities such as livestock and fisheries, providing some relief to rural incomes and stabilising food supply.
Industry drives overall growth
The industrial sector emerged as the strongest performer, posting a robust 6.97 percent growth, nearly double the 3.59 percent recorded in Q1 of FY25. Analysts attribute the acceleration to improved manufacturing activity, easing of energy constraints, and a modest pickup in domestic demand. Export-oriented industries, particularly in manufacturing, also contributed significantly to the sector’s strong performance.
Services sector improves
The services sector recorded growth of 3.67 percent, up from 2.96 percent in the same quarter last year. The expansion reflects a gradual revival in trade, transport, communications, and other service-related activities, which had been subdued amid economic uncertainty and low consumption in FY25.
Outlook
The recent figures suggest an early recovery and broad-based turnaround in economic activity.The stronger GDP growth in Q1 of FY26 points to early signs of economic recovery, supported by broad-based sectoral gains. However, economists caution that sustaining momentum will require continued policy support, macroeconomic stability, and progress in addressing structural challenges.
The provisional nature of the quarterly estimates means revisions are likely as more comprehensive data become available. Nevertheless, the Q1 figures offer an encouraging signal that Bangladesh’s economy is gradually regaining pace after a period of slowdown.
Despite positive trends, growth is still below pre-pandemic figures, and lingering economic pressures exist, while some individuals experience economic hardship. Projections for FY26 anticipate growth around 4.6% (UN) to 5.0% (ADB), with expectations of further increases in FY27 as improved business confidence, policy continuity, and easing inflation are expected to further support investment and consumption.
Comments
Bangladesh’s economy posted a stronger performance in the first quarter (Q1) of the 2025–26 fiscal year, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerating to 4.50 percent on a point-to-point basis in constant prices, according to provisional estimates.
The latest quarterly figures indicate a significant improvement compared with the same period last year, when GDP growth stood at 2.58 percent, reflecting a broad-based recovery led by the industrial sector, alongside gains in agriculture and services.
In current prices, GDP in Q1 of FY26 is estimated at Tk 13,853,433 million (Tk 13,853 billion), up from Tk 12,401,032 million (Tk 12,401 billion) in Q1 of FY25, signalling a substantial expansion in nominal economic activity year-on-year.
Quarterly-based estimates also place GDP growth for the full FY25 at 3.72 percent in constant prices. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) noted that these quarterly figures differ from the provisional annual GDP estimate for FY25, a discrepancy that will be resolved using internationally accepted benchmarking methods once final annual figures are compiled.
Agriculture rebounds
The agriculture sector returned to growth in Q1 of FY26, expanding 2.30 percent in constant prices, reversing the 0.60 percent contraction recorded in the same quarter of FY25. The recovery reflects improved crop yields and a gradual resurgence in allied activities such as livestock and fisheries, providing some relief to rural incomes and stabilising food supply.
Industry drives overall growth
The industrial sector emerged as the strongest performer, posting a robust 6.97 percent growth, nearly double the 3.59 percent recorded in Q1 of FY25. Analysts attribute the acceleration to improved manufacturing activity, easing of energy constraints, and a modest pickup in domestic demand. Export-oriented industries, particularly in manufacturing, also contributed significantly to the sector’s strong performance.
Services sector improves
The services sector recorded growth of 3.67 percent, up from 2.96 percent in the same quarter last year. The expansion reflects a gradual revival in trade, transport, communications, and other service-related activities, which had been subdued amid economic uncertainty and low consumption in FY25.
Outlook
The recent figures suggest an early recovery and broad-based turnaround in economic activity.The stronger GDP growth in Q1 of FY26 points to early signs of economic recovery, supported by broad-based sectoral gains. However, economists caution that sustaining momentum will require continued policy support, macroeconomic stability, and progress in addressing structural challenges.
The provisional nature of the quarterly estimates means revisions are likely as more comprehensive data become available. Nevertheless, the Q1 figures offer an encouraging signal that Bangladesh’s economy is gradually regaining pace after a period of slowdown.
Despite positive trends, growth is still below pre-pandemic figures, and lingering economic pressures exist, while some individuals experience economic hardship. Projections for FY26 anticipate growth around 4.6% (UN) to 5.0% (ADB), with expectations of further increases in FY27 as improved business confidence, policy continuity, and easing inflation are expected to further support investment and consumption.
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