Thursday, 05 February, 2026
Bangladesh’s political landscape is witnessing a dramatic shift ahead of the February 12 national election, with a new survey indicating that nearly half of Awami League supporters — whose party is barred from contesting — may now back the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
The findings bolster predictions from US-based magazine The Diplomat, which has dubbed BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman as Bangladesh’s “likely next prime minister.”
The joint study, conducted by the Communication and Research Foundation (CRF) and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies (BEPOS), was presented on Wednesday at the National Press Club under the title “Uncovering the Public Pulse: A Nationwide Survey.” Covering 11,038 voters in two phases from November 20 to December 31, the survey used stratified random sampling to capture the national mood.
Nearly 48 percent of Awami League supporters said they now intend to vote for the BNP’s Sheaf of Paddy symbol, while 37.4 percent of voters who joined the electorate after 2008 preferred Jamaat-e-Islami. Over 90 percent of respondents said they plan to vote, with about eight percent undecided or opting out. Corruption was identified as the top concern by 67.3 percent, followed by religion at 35.9 percent.
CRF Strategic Coordinator Zakaria Polash presented the results alongside UK University of Reading Visiting Professor M Niaz Asadullah and Shahjalal University of Science and Technology Professor Md Shahabul Haque. The organisations described the voter shift as “historic,” emphasising the unprecedented scale of support moving towards BNP.
The Diplomat’s analysis echoed the survey’s findings, highlighting Rahman’s rapid rise as the frontrunner in multiple polls. Citing global outlets including Bloomberg, Time, and The Economist, the magazine predicted Rahman would emerge as Bangladesh’s next premier under the oversight of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus’ interim government.
A major factor, the report said, is the country’s youth. Gen Z voters — a decisive portion of the electorate — are reportedly flocking to BNP rallies and events led by Rahman. Speaking to The Diplomat en route to Tangail for an election rally, Rahman said, “We are prioritising job creation, technical education, sports, the IT sector, and the job market, which resonates strongly with Gen Z. Most attendees at our meetings today were Gen Z.”
Rahman outlined a “Bangladesh First” foreign policy, promising an economy-driven approach that safeguards national interests while promoting mutual trust and respect internationally. Criticising the former Awami League government for India-oriented policies, he said, “No matter which countries we engage with, our national interest must come first.”
On domestic priorities, Rahman highlighted plans to expand the IT sector, semiconductors, light engineering, footwear, SMEs, processed food, and the creative economy. He pledged strong financial governance, vowing, “We will build a transparent and accountable system where corruption will not be tolerated and abusers of power brought to justice.”
Rahman also addressed law and order, climate change, and infrastructure, promising security so citizens can live without fear, mobilising funds from the Global Climate Fund, excavating 20,000 kilometres of canals, and planting 250 million trees.
The BNP chairman underlined the party’s 31-point charter, focusing on seven core priorities: family card, farmer card, healthcare, employment, education, and youth development. “We will bring positive change to society by addressing the people’s interests and aspirations. We will establish the power of the people — this is my commitment to the country,” he said.
With nearly half of Awami League supporters now signalling support for BNP and Rahman’s popularity surging among young voters, Bangladesh’s February 12 elections are shaping up to be a historic turning point. Analysts predict a potential political earthquake that could redefine the country’s leadership and policy direction for years to come.
As Bangladesh heads to the polls on February 12, the enduring popularity of late President Ziaur Rahman is shaping the nation’s political battlefield, propelling his son, BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman, into the spotlight as a formidable contender.
Widely revered for restoring stability in the post-independence era and laying the foundations of democratic governance, Ziaur Rahman’s legacy continues to inspire millions, particularly after two consecutive elections under the Awami League were marred by voter suppression and widespread allegations of electoral manipulation.
Analysts say Tarique Rahman’s campaign draws heavily on his father’s image as a decisive, reform-minded leader committed to national sovereignty, law and order, and economic development. From rural heartlands to urban centres, public sentiment reflects nostalgia for the late president’s pragmatic governance, with many seeing Tarique as the heir to a vision that blends stability with progress.
The resurgence of BNP under Tarique, underpinned by reverence for Ziaur Rahman, signals not just a revival of a political party but a broader yearning among voters for a leadership that embodies the values and aspirations of one of Bangladesh’s most iconic statesmen.
Comments
Bangladesh’s political landscape is witnessing a dramatic shift ahead of the February 12 national election, with a new survey indicating that nearly half of Awami League supporters — whose party is barred from contesting — may now back the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
The findings bolster predictions from US-based magazine The Diplomat, which has dubbed BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman as Bangladesh’s “likely next prime minister.”
The joint study, conducted by the Communication and Research Foundation (CRF) and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies (BEPOS), was presented on Wednesday at the National Press Club under the title “Uncovering the Public Pulse: A Nationwide Survey.” Covering 11,038 voters in two phases from November 20 to December 31, the survey used stratified random sampling to capture the national mood.
Nearly 48 percent of Awami League supporters said they now intend to vote for the BNP’s Sheaf of Paddy symbol, while 37.4 percent of voters who joined the electorate after 2008 preferred Jamaat-e-Islami. Over 90 percent of respondents said they plan to vote, with about eight percent undecided or opting out. Corruption was identified as the top concern by 67.3 percent, followed by religion at 35.9 percent.
CRF Strategic Coordinator Zakaria Polash presented the results alongside UK University of Reading Visiting Professor M Niaz Asadullah and Shahjalal University of Science and Technology Professor Md Shahabul Haque. The organisations described the voter shift as “historic,” emphasising the unprecedented scale of support moving towards BNP.
The Diplomat’s analysis echoed the survey’s findings, highlighting Rahman’s rapid rise as the frontrunner in multiple polls. Citing global outlets including Bloomberg, Time, and The Economist, the magazine predicted Rahman would emerge as Bangladesh’s next premier under the oversight of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus’ interim government.
A major factor, the report said, is the country’s youth. Gen Z voters — a decisive portion of the electorate — are reportedly flocking to BNP rallies and events led by Rahman. Speaking to The Diplomat en route to Tangail for an election rally, Rahman said, “We are prioritising job creation, technical education, sports, the IT sector, and the job market, which resonates strongly with Gen Z. Most attendees at our meetings today were Gen Z.”
Rahman outlined a “Bangladesh First” foreign policy, promising an economy-driven approach that safeguards national interests while promoting mutual trust and respect internationally. Criticising the former Awami League government for India-oriented policies, he said, “No matter which countries we engage with, our national interest must come first.”
On domestic priorities, Rahman highlighted plans to expand the IT sector, semiconductors, light engineering, footwear, SMEs, processed food, and the creative economy. He pledged strong financial governance, vowing, “We will build a transparent and accountable system where corruption will not be tolerated and abusers of power brought to justice.”
Rahman also addressed law and order, climate change, and infrastructure, promising security so citizens can live without fear, mobilising funds from the Global Climate Fund, excavating 20,000 kilometres of canals, and planting 250 million trees.
The BNP chairman underlined the party’s 31-point charter, focusing on seven core priorities: family card, farmer card, healthcare, employment, education, and youth development. “We will bring positive change to society by addressing the people’s interests and aspirations. We will establish the power of the people — this is my commitment to the country,” he said.
With nearly half of Awami League supporters now signalling support for BNP and Rahman’s popularity surging among young voters, Bangladesh’s February 12 elections are shaping up to be a historic turning point. Analysts predict a potential political earthquake that could redefine the country’s leadership and policy direction for years to come.
As Bangladesh heads to the polls on February 12, the enduring popularity of late President Ziaur Rahman is shaping the nation’s political battlefield, propelling his son, BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman, into the spotlight as a formidable contender.
Widely revered for restoring stability in the post-independence era and laying the foundations of democratic governance, Ziaur Rahman’s legacy continues to inspire millions, particularly after two consecutive elections under the Awami League were marred by voter suppression and widespread allegations of electoral manipulation.
Analysts say Tarique Rahman’s campaign draws heavily on his father’s image as a decisive, reform-minded leader committed to national sovereignty, law and order, and economic development. From rural heartlands to urban centres, public sentiment reflects nostalgia for the late president’s pragmatic governance, with many seeing Tarique as the heir to a vision that blends stability with progress.
The resurgence of BNP under Tarique, underpinned by reverence for Ziaur Rahman, signals not just a revival of a political party but a broader yearning among voters for a leadership that embodies the values and aspirations of one of Bangladesh’s most iconic statesmen.
Comments
