As Bangladesh hurtles toward its national election and referendum on 12 February, the political atmosphere is charged with anxiety over potential “election engineering.” Memories of past manipulations—particularly under the banned Awami League regimes—still haunt voters, prompting a persistent, unsettling question: “Will there even be a fair election?” While no one can answer definitively, Lieutenant General Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury (retd.), Adviser to the Ministries of Home Affairs and Agriculture, has vowed a free and fair process. Nearly one million security personnel—the largest deployment since independence—have been mobilised. On Sunday, he instructed all officials to strictly prevent any threat to public order, declaring: “There will be no compromise on law and order in the JS elections. The highest professionalism must be displayed to ensure citizen safety before, during, and after the polls.” Yet the spectre of election engineering is being raised loudly by multiple parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami, the Jatiya Party, and the Revolutionary Workers Party. On 7 February, the BNP formally aired its concerns. Spokesperson Mahdi Amin, speaking in Lakshmipur, accused rivals of ballot manipulation and warned against the exploitation of religious sentiment for fraudulent votes. Dhaka-11 candidate MA Quayum cited risks of vote tampering, while senior figures Mirza Abbas and Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury evoked the haunting precedent of past elections. “If we fear election engineering, no one will remain unscathed,” warned Chapainawabganj-3 candidate Harunur Rashid. Leaders of the Jatiya Party and Revolutionary Workers Party echoed these anxieties. Secretary General Shameem Haider Patwary called for unified vigilance, while candidate Saiful Haque said BNP would counter any attempts to subvert the vote. BNP’s accusations implicitly targeted Jamaat, which vehemently denied them. Jamaat spokesperson Ahsanul Mahboob Zubair dismissed the claims as “baseless,” insisting the party had duly informed the Election Commission of potential threats. Political analysts note that such pre-election suspicions arise from two intertwined causes. First, the interim government has historically avoided taking firm stances, often accommodating both major parties in appointments and policy decisions. Second, longstanding political strategy dictates that parties pre-emptively craft narratives of manipulation to justify potential defeats. Past elections suggest that few results are ever accepted without challenge, making mistrust an enduring feature of Bangladesh’s electoral landscape. The legacy of the Awami League’s administration looms large. The 7 January 2024 election, dubbed the “Me and Dummy” poll, followed controversial elections in 2014 and 2018. In 2014, a BNP boycott left the Awami League to hold a one-sided vote; in 2018, allegations surfaced that ballot boxes had been pre-stuffed. The interim government’s commission of inquiry, reporting to the Chief Adviser on 12 January, traced systematic election manipulation back to post-2008 planning at the highest state levels. These past irregularities now shadow the February vote. Beyond Bangladesh, the February elections carry regional significance. South Asia’s 2026 electoral calendar will follow Bangladesh, with Nepal’s general election on 5 March and India’s state elections in West Bengal and Assam between March and May. How Bangladesh conducts its vote will influence narratives, voter behaviour, and perceptions of legitimacy across the subcontinent. Bangladesh’s elections also stand apart because of the unique political climate. The ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina remains in exile in India after a student-led uprising in August 2024 ended her fifteen-year rule. Her presence abroad continues to exert a catalytic influence, complicating Dhaka–Delhi relations and shaping domestic perceptions of residual regime power. Meanwhile, youth-led protests, economic hardship, religious extremism, and social polarization create a volatile backdrop for the ballot. The stakes are stark. A BNP victory may signal continuity within the entrenched elite duopoly rather than systemic renewal. Gains by Jamaat-e-Islami could amplify religious mobilization in politics, while strong performance by the National Citizen Party (NCP) might indicate a shift from street activism to electoral influence, reflecting the legacy of the 2024 uprising. Each outcome will resonate across South Asia, offering lessons or warnings for Nepal and India, where youth-led and anti-establishment forces are similarly engaged. In this tense, historic moment, Bangladesh’s election is far more than a domestic exercise in democracy. It is a test of institutional integrity, a barometer of regional political trends, and a crucible for the nation’s trust in the electoral process. Haunted by past manipulations, the country approaches February 12 with both hope and apprehension—a moment when history and the present collide, and the shadow of the past threatens to determine the shape of the future.

BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman on Sunday called on voters across the country to remain vigilant to protect their voting rights and ensure the national election is free from manipulation and conspiracies. Speaking at a massive rally at the National Bangla High School ground in Mirpur in support of BNP candidate Sanjida Islam Tuli for Dhaka-14, Tarique warned that citizens must prevent anyone from turning their ballots into a “dummy election.” “You must remain alert so that no one can lock your vote inside ballot boxes or change election results through conspiracy. No one should be allowed to steal your rights,” he said. Tarique accused a certain party of misleading voters in the name of religion and attempting to manipulate the election.  “We have already seen members of that party caught making fake seals. They went to innocent mothers and sisters to collect NID and bKash numbers to deceive them,” he said, in an oblique reference to Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami. He recalled the party’s historical record of standing against the people, including during the Liberation War and the 1990 mass movement, adding, “They have repeatedly abandoned the people and sided with anti-democratic forces.” Outlining BNP’s priorities, Tarique said the party focuses on delivering plans and programmes rather than empty criticism. “People need practical initiatives that can truly change their fate. At this moment, BNP is the only party with such plans,” he said. Criticising the past 16 years of Awami League governance, he said so-called mega projects brought benefits only to a few while ordinary citizens remained neglected. Tarique called on voters in Dhaka-14 to support Sanjida Islam Tuli, describing her as a candidate who understands people’s pain and will stand by them. “Please look after Tuli until February 12. From February 13, she will be responsible for looking after all of you,” he said. Earlier, speaking at Shyamoli Club in support of BNP-backed Bobby Hajjaj for Dhaka-13, Tarique stressed that restoring law and order would be a top priority under BNP. “Public safety and freedom of movement are essential for any development. Our mothers and sisters must be able to walk safely, and people must return home without fear,” he said. At another rally at Adarsha High School ground in Senpara, Mirpur-10 under Dhaka-15, Tarique outlined BNP’s national development agenda, promising empowerment for women, support for farmers, improved healthcare, and employment opportunities for youth through ICT, vocational and technical training. “All these initiatives require your cooperation. BNP has presented its plans—what is your plan for February 12?” he asked, drawing chants of “Sheaf of Paddy” from thousands of supporters. Tarique also introduced BNP candidate Shafiqul Islam Khan Milton for Dhaka-15, urging voters to elect him and help build “the Bangladesh we envision in honour of our martyrs.” He began his Dhaka campaign earlier at 3:30 pm at ECB ground in Dhaka-17 and then addressed Lalmat Field in Pallabi-2 under Dhaka-16, pledging to personally monitor development work and welfare in the area if BNP candidates are elected. Highlighting local concerns such as waterlogging and hospital services, Tarique assured voters that BNP will implement practical solutions, enforce canal protection, and ensure accountable governance. Reflecting on past uprisings, he reminded the public, “For the last 16 years, people could not vote freely. Now your freedom to vote has returned, and many sacrificed their lives for it. Let February 12 mark the beginning of a new chapter of safety, accountability and democratic rights under BNP.”

Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Dr. Shafiqur Rahman has pledged that his party will act as guardians of the people’s lives, wealth and dignity, declaring that they aim to serve the nation rather than rule it. “We will, InshaAllah, be the protectors of the people’s lives, wealth and dignity. We will not be the owners of this country; we will be its servants if the people elect us to form the government,” Dr. Shafiqur said on Sunday while speaking as the chief guest at the election rally of National Citizen Party (NCP) convener Nahid Islam, the Jamaat-led alliance candidate for Dhaka-11, held at the DIT Project playground in Badda. He emphasised transparency, stating that elected representatives would be required to submit annual asset declarations to the nation, ensuring accountability in their income. On women’s rights, Dr. Shafiqur said that safeguarding the dignity and security of women would be a top priority. “In this beloved country, women lack safety at home, on the streets and in workplaces. InshaAllah, our first commitment will be to ensure that mothers and sisters are protected and respected,” he said. He vowed to protect the rights of all 180 million citizens across Bangladesh’s 56,000 square miles, promising fairness and justice for everyone. Criticising the siphoning of national wealth abroad, Dr. Shafiqur stressed, “To accelerate Bangladesh’s progress, it is crucial to recover looted wealth and prevent future plunder. The Jamaat-led alliance will do its utmost to bring stolen resources back to the country.” At the event, he handed over the Shaplakali (Water Lily Bud) election symbol to Nahid Islam and urged supporters to safeguard the integrity of the vote ahead of the February 12 election. “From now until the polls, guard your votes. Do not allow any miscreant to tamper with your ballots,” he warned, calling for vigilance to ensure a free and fair election.