The year 2025 closed a turbulent chapter in Bangladesh’s history. As 2026 begins, the nation stands at a crossroads: can elections, reforms, and political unity deliver what years of upheaval could not? Analysts suggest a three-year arc: 2024 was a year of hope, 2025 brought tension and uncertainty, and 2026 will determine whether this turbulence leads to genuine democratic progress or deeper disappointment. A Political Vacuum and Emerging Actors The passing of Begum Khaleda Zia dissolved the old political duopoly, creating space for new actors but also heightening uncertainty. Targeted assassinations, attacks on cultural and media institutions, and outbreaks of mob violence have shadowed attempts at reform. Political commentators argue that only a free and fair election can break the stalemate, though democratic transition also requires robust institutional reforms, which remain uncertain. Nobel laureate and interim chief Muhammad Yunus has described the upcoming parliamentary elections and referendum as “a historic moment to chart Bangladesh’s future”, urging citizens to safeguard both the vote and the nation. Yet, the broader context is stark: “mob” violence has eroded democratic norms, assaults on newspaper offices have undermined independent journalism, and attacks on traditional cultural institutions like Chhayanaut Bhaban and Udichi Shilpigosthi reveal a new extremism. Economic and Administrative Stagnation Late 2025 reports highlight significant administrative and economic inertia. Many major decisions—both at state and household levels—were postponed as the nation awaited elections. Experts attribute this stagnation to a politicised bureaucracy, corruption, and weak governance. Promotions, postings, and resource allocation often ignored merit and efficiency, further slowing progress. Economic indicators reflect this uncertainty. GDP growth rose modestly from 3.69% to 4.86% before dropping to 3.35% in Q4, with food inflation remaining a pressing concern. Foreign reserves recovered to $32.57 billion, yet revenue shortfalls and under-spending on the Annual Development Programme indicate structural gaps. CPD Fellow Mustafizur Rahman notes: “2025 began with challenges; some positive trends emerged, but many structural problems remain unresolved.” Political Upheaval and the New Leadership The departure of Sheikh Hasina in 2024 and Khaleda Zia in 2025 ended the era of the “Two Begums” in politics. With Khaleda’s passing, her son Tarique Rahman returned from seventeen years of exile, assuming BNP leadership. A parliamentary election is scheduled for 12 February 2026, alongside a referendum on democratic reforms. Tarique’s return revitalised the BNP and strengthened its alliances. The Jamaat-e-Islami joined the 11-party coalition, while the NCP, initially a student-led reformist party, was drawn into the broader right-wing bloc. Analysts suggest that the upcoming elections may crystallise ideological divisions between an Islamic front and a nationalist, secular capitalist front. Security Concerns and Violence The assassination of prospective Dhaka-8 candidate Sharif Osman bin Hadi in December intensified fears, with rumours of additional targeted attacks circulating. Following Hadi’s death, coordinated assaults on Prothom Alo, The Daily Star, and cultural institutions occurred, revealing systemic lapses in law enforcement. Human rights advocates warned that these were not spontaneous “mob incidents” but targeted campaigns to suppress dissent. Former IGP Muhammad Nurul Huda observed: “There’s a pattern using ideologically motivated actors to intimidate and eliminate opposition voices.” The attacks also included deaths and forced resignations, raising concerns over the rule of law ahead of national elections. Shrinking Space for the Awami League Since Sheikh Hasina’s exile, the Awami League has been cornered politically. Party offices were shuttered, leaders detained, and electoral participation effectively barred. Despite occasional protests, the party faces legal and organisational restrictions, leaving questions about its future political relevance. Reforms and Electoral Challenges The July National Charter, drafted during the interim government, highlighted divisions among parties. Of 84 agreed points, 67 faced dissent, leaving questions about implementation. The BNP and its allies remain cautious about “manufactured reforms,” while Jamaat mobilised around specific demands. The NCP seeks to establish itself as a third political force, yet uncertainty persists over its long-term stance. Analysts warn that for 2026 to mark genuine progress, the election must be free, inclusive, and credible. Past elections, while providing moments of legitimacy, failed to fully institutionalise democratic norms. Observers stress that political unity and public participation are essential to realise the objectives of the July Uprising. Outlook: Hope Amid Uncertainty Despite the challenges, there is cautious optimism. Tarique Rahman has outlined a 31-point reform plan addressing employment, welfare, and state governance. Analysts note that the upcoming elections present an opportunity to consolidate institutional reform and revive public trust. Prof Mustafizur Rahman summarises: “2025 was a year of attempted transformation. 2026 begins under a shadow of uncertainty. The first step is ensuring peaceful, participatory elections. The next is implementing reforms without infringing on citizens’ rights. Restoring state accountability is essential for democratic progress.” The nation stands at a pivotal juncture. With hope and apprehension entwined, Bangladesh faces 2026 as a year of possibility—but only if elections are free, reforms genuine, and political actors committed to unity and accountability.

As Bangladesh enters 2026, the country’s path remains uncertain. The final year of 2025 exposed deep-rooted administrative inefficiencies and economic stagnation, highlighting structural weaknesses that have long hindered progress. From the corridors of the secretariat to remote government offices, bureaucratic bottlenecks have multiplied, delaying critical decision-making and affecting the daily lives of millions. A Year on Hold Recent reports from the Daily Observer and regional analyses indicate that the nation has experienced a prolonged period of administrative inertia. Senior political figures and observers note that major government and business decisions have largely stalled as the country awaits national elections scheduled for February 2026. This “wait-and-see” approach has postponed essential investments, hampered trade, and slowed household economic choices, leaving the country’s growth on pause. The bureaucracy’s lack of professionalism, compounded by politicisation, corruption, and poor governance, has been widely criticised. Decisions on promotions, postings, and resource allocation often bypass merit, seniority, or efficiency, further discouraging administrative dynamism. Economic Frictions Political unrest and administrative paralysis have translated into economic stagnation. The production sector faces mounting challenges due to power shortages, fuel constraints, high interest rates, and inadequate infrastructure, all of which have discouraged expansion. Revenue collection has stagnated, with the government failing to meet targets for ten consecutive years. The interim government’s 2025–26 budget, smaller than its predecessor, signals a period of fiscal contraction rather than expansion. Inflationary pressures, particularly in food prices, continue to erode household purchasing power. While foreign reserves have stabilised at $32.57 billion, export earnings fell 5.5% in November 2025, and the Annual Development Programme remains underutilised, with only 12.25% of allocations spent in the first five months. Analysts warn that these economic pressures, combined with administrative lethargy, could slow recovery and exacerbate social discontent. Historical Context of Administrative Reform Bangladesh’s struggle with administrative reform is longstanding. Since independence in 1971, over a dozen commissions—including the Civil Administration Restoration Committee (CAR, 1971), the Administrative Reorganisation Committee (ARC, 1993), and the Regulatory Reform Commission (RRC, 2007)—have proposed sweeping changes, yet most recommendations remained unimplemented due to political interference and bureaucratic resistance. The post-war CAR focused on reconstructing a war-torn administration, but political turbulence limited its success. Subsequent efforts, from decentralisation initiatives in the ASRC (1972) to pay and service restructuring in the P&SC (1976), repeatedly stalled. Even intermittent reforms, such as judicial separation and regulatory simplification, failed to bring systemic change. The Muyeed Commission: A New Hope? Following the August 5, 2025 ousting of the Awami League government, the interim administration established the Public Administration Reform Commission (PARC) on October 3, chaired by Abdul Muyeed Chowdhury. Tasked with diagnosing longstanding inefficiencies, the commission produced over 200 recommendations in just four months, covering short-term (six months), medium-term (one year), and long-term reforms. Key proposals include: Reducing and clustering ministries into five groups; Creating two new departments; Dividing the country into four provinces; Establishing a Delhi-style capital city government; Renaming deputy commissioners and upazila officers; Restructuring the civil service; Abolishing the OSD (on special duty) system; Appointing an ombudsman to oversee accountability. The commission’s survey revealed stark public perceptions: 84% of Bangladeshis believe the administration needs reform, 80% find government services unfriendly, and 64% feel officials behave like rulers rather than servants. Dr Md Hafizur Rahman Bhuiyan, former additional secretary and commission member, stressed that the proposals were grounded in historical research rather than partisan interests. “If leaders prioritise the collective good over party interests, these reforms can succeed,” he said, cautioning that political will is critical. Persistent Challenges Experts identify two main barriers to reform: entrenched political reluctance and bureaucratic inertia. Without sustained leadership commitment, even the best-designed reforms are unlikely to materialise. Professor Sadiq Hasan of Dhaka University notes: “Past governments sidelined reforms to protect partisan agendas, while bureaucrats resisted losing influence. The interim government may implement short-term fixes, but systemic transformation requires broader democratic legitimacy.” The political landscape adds further uncertainty. With national elections looming, policymakers may hesitate to enact reforms that could provoke controversy or challenge entrenched interests. Critics warn that without genuine enforcement, the Muyeed Commission’s proposals risk becoming another in a long line of shelved reports. A Glimmer of Optimism Despite scepticism, some see potential for meaningful change. The interim government’s lack of partisan ties could allow bold steps previously avoided by elected administrations. Analysts argue that a transparent, merit-based implementation of the commission’s recommendations could modernise the civil service, improve service delivery, and enhance accountability—laying a stronger foundation for democratic governance. “Reform isn’t just policy—it’s a process requiring political commitment, bureaucratic cooperation, and public engagement,” Professor Hasan observed. “Whether this opportunity is seized will define Bangladesh’s trajectory for years to come.” As 2026 begins, the nation faces a pivotal moment: can it turn years of stagnation into an era of administrative efficiency and economic revival, or will historical patterns of inertia and partisan obstruction prevail? The Muyeed Commission’s report offers a roadmap, but the journey ahead will demand courage, vision, and decisive political will.

An extraordinary outpouring of respect marked the funeral of former Prime Minister and BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia on Wednesday, as foreign dignitaries, envoys, and heads of international organisations gathered in Dhaka to honour the legacy of the veteran Bangladeshi stateswoman. The Namaz-e-Janaza, held at Manik Mia Avenue, drew senior representatives from South Asia and beyond, underscoring Begum Khaleda Zia’s enduring stature on the regional and global stage. The presence of multiple foreign leaders transformed the solemn ceremony into a moment of shared mourning and diplomatic tribute. Representing Pakistan, Speaker of the National Assembly Sardar Ayaz Sadiq arrived in Dhaka in the morning and was received at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport by senior officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Pakistan High Commission, reflecting Islamabad’s respect for the late leader’s political legacy. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar also flew in on a special flight to attend the funeral on behalf of the Indian government, signalling New Delhi’s recognition of Begum Khaleda Zia’s pivotal role in Bangladesh’s political history and regional engagement. Adding a personal diplomatic dimension, both Jaishankar and Sardar Ayaz Sadiq held separate courtesy meetings with BNP Acting Chairperson Tarique Rahman at the Jatiya Sangsad Bhaban to convey condolences personally. During his meeting, Jaishankar handed over a condolence message from the Government of India, including a personal letter from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, expressing the deepest sympathies of the Government and people of India. He also noted his confidence that Khaleda Zia’s vision and values would continue to guide Bangladesh–India relations. In a parallel meeting, Pakistan’s Speaker Sardar Ayaz Sadiq delivered Islamabad’s official condolence message to Tarique Rahman on behalf of the Government and people of Pakistan, describing Begum Khaleda Zia as an unwavering leader committed to protecting Bangladesh’s independence and sovereignty. Sri Lanka was represented by Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath, who joined the funeral procession shortly after arriving in Dhaka. Nepal’s Foreign Minister Bala Nanda Sharma attended on behalf of his government and people, while Bhutan’s Foreign Affairs and External Trade Minister Lyonpo D. N. Dhungyel also participated, reinforcing the strong regional presence at the state funeral. A special envoy from the President of the Maldives completed the regional delegation. Ambassadors and high commissioners from nearly 40 countries—including the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, Canada, and Australia—attended the Janaza, alongside representatives of the European Union and heads of several multilateral and regional organisations. Their collective presence reflected the wide diplomatic respect commanded by Begum Khaleda Zia, whose long political career left a lasting imprint on Bangladesh’s democratic evolution and its relations with neighbouring and friendly nations. The convergence of global and regional leaders in Dhaka stood as a solemn international salute to one of Bangladesh’s most towering political figures, symbolising both mourning and recognition of her enduring legacy.