Bangladesh’s fragile political calm is once again showing cracks. What began as a constitutional debate on democratic reform has spiralled into a battle for political supremacy, threatening to derail the nation’s electoral roadmap and unsettle its precarious transition toward stability.

Tensions flared dramatically on Tuesday when Jamaat Ameer Dr Shafiqur Rahman, addressing a mass rally in Paltan, declared that no election could proceed without first granting legal recognition to the July Charter — the political framework born out of the 2024 “July Revolution” that toppled the Awami League regime. “Without that legal basis, elections cannot take place,” he warned, insisting that the people’s demand for a referendum was now “clear and unanimous.”

The jamaat rally in the capital city on Tuesday

BNP leaders, however, have dismissed Jamaat’s stance as divisive and unrealistic. Speaking in Thakurgaon in the same day, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir accused Jamaat of hypocrisy and warned that it would “cease to exist” after the next election. He rejected the idea of a pre-election referendum and proportional representation as “impractical distractions,” arguing that “people vote for symbols, not party lists.”

Mirza Fakhrul Islam further cautioned the interim government against imposing electoral reforms without broad consensus, warning that “the responsibility for any fallout will rest with those who force decisions outside agreement.”  

The recent BNP rally in the capital

The rupture between these two historic allies of democratic movements has sent shockwaves through the political landscape. Observers fear that the opposition’s fragmentation could inadvertently empower remnants of the fallen Awami League, which, though officially banned, is reportedly mobilising online ahead of 13 November — the date tied to Sheikh Hasina’s war crimes verdict at the International Crimes Tribunal.

Amid this deepening tension, Dhaka has seen a surge of violence. Crude bombs exploded in seven locations, and three buses were torched in the early hours of Tuesday, according to the Fire Service. Though no casualties were reported, the incidents have reignited public fears of a return to political street battles. In response, the interim government led by Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus has deployed additional troops with magistracy powers and urged restraint, but the prospect of escalation looms large as Jamaat pushes ahead with its eight-party rally and the BNP hardens its rhetoric.

Yet, as old rivalries resurface and ambitions collide, that promise now trembles on the brink. The question confronting Bangladesh is no longer just about when a referendum should be held — it is about whether its leaders can rise above partisan conflict to safeguard the fragile democracy reborn from the ashes of revolution.

At the core of the crisis lies a single but explosive question: when should the referendum be held? The BNP favours holding it alongside the general election, framing it as part of a democratic mandate. Jamaat insists it must occur beforehand to legitimise the July Charter, which outlines proportional representation and constitutional reform. The newly formed National Citizen Party (NCP), led by student leaders of the 2024 uprising, has tried to bridge the divide, supporting either option but demanding full implementation of the Charter.

The interim government’s deadline for consensus expired on Monday without progress. Chief Adviser’s Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam confirmed that mediation efforts continue but warned that if no agreement emerges, “the government will take a decision as per its mandate.”

Political analysts say the coming days will determine whether Bangladesh stays on its democratic course or slides back into chaos. “The ball is now in the court of the interim government,” said Professor Sabbir Ahmed of Dhaka University. “It must act before fallen fascist forces exploit the divide.”

In Bangladesh’s political tradition, every major party seeks a symbolic victory before an election — a moral high ground to claim legitimacy. For the BNP, synchronising the referendum with the polls would serve that purpose. For Jamaat, a pre-election referendum validating proportional representation system (PR) would be its triumph. Yet these aims are irreconcilable, leaving the interim government with the daunting task of crafting a formula that lets each camp save face while keeping the electoral process intact.

Most analysts agree that a simultaneous referendum and election offers the most practical compromise — a way to uphold democratic legitimacy without disrupting the vote. 

Most analysts agree that a simultaneous referendum and election offers the most practical compromise — a way to uphold democratic legitimacy without disrupting the vote. Such an arrangement could satisfy the BNP’s demand, while Jamaat and the NCP might be compensated through proportional representation guarantees in the proposed Upper House. It is an imperfect solution, but perhaps the only one capable of preventing a descent into instability.

The February 2026 election is approaching fast, and the stakes could not be higher. The July Revolution promised a new dawn — a clean break from repression and the rebirth of democratic politics.

Yet, as old rivalries resurface and ambitions collide, that promise now trembles on the brink. The question confronting Bangladesh is no longer just about when a referendum should be held — it is about whether its leaders can rise above partisan conflict to safeguard the fragile democracy reborn from the ashes of revolution.

Is the nation once again drifting toward chaos, or can it still summon the wisdom to turn division into dialogue before it is too late?