Thursday, 01 January, 2026
The year 2025 closed a turbulent chapter in Bangladesh’s history. As 2026 begins, the nation stands at a crossroads: can elections, reforms, and political unity deliver what years of upheaval could not? Analysts suggest a three-year arc: 2024 was a year of hope, 2025 brought tension and uncertainty, and 2026 will determine whether this turbulence leads to genuine democratic progress or deeper disappointment.
A Political Vacuum and Emerging Actors
The passing of Begum Khaleda Zia dissolved the old political duopoly, creating space for new actors but also heightening uncertainty. Targeted assassinations, attacks on cultural and media institutions, and outbreaks of mob violence have shadowed attempts at reform. Political commentators argue that only a free and fair election can break the stalemate, though democratic transition also requires robust institutional reforms, which remain uncertain.
Nobel laureate and interim chief Muhammad Yunus has described the upcoming parliamentary elections and referendum as “a historic moment to chart Bangladesh’s future”, urging citizens to safeguard both the vote and the nation. Yet, the broader context is stark: “mob” violence has eroded democratic norms, assaults on newspaper offices have undermined independent journalism, and attacks on traditional cultural institutions like Chhayanaut Bhaban and Udichi Shilpigosthi reveal a new extremism.
Economic and Administrative Stagnation
Late 2025 reports highlight significant administrative and economic inertia. Many major decisions—both at state and household levels—were postponed as the nation awaited elections. Experts attribute this stagnation to a politicised bureaucracy, corruption, and weak governance. Promotions, postings, and resource allocation often ignored merit and efficiency, further slowing progress.
Economic indicators reflect this uncertainty. GDP growth rose modestly from 3.69% to 4.86% before dropping to 3.35% in Q4, with food inflation remaining a pressing concern. Foreign reserves recovered to $32.57 billion, yet revenue shortfalls and under-spending on the Annual Development Programme indicate structural gaps. CPD Fellow Mustafizur Rahman notes: “2025 began with challenges; some positive trends emerged, but many structural problems remain unresolved.”
Political Upheaval and the New Leadership
The departure of Sheikh Hasina in 2024 and Khaleda Zia in 2025 ended the era of the “Two Begums” in politics. With Khaleda’s passing, her son Tarique Rahman returned from seventeen years of exile, assuming BNP leadership. A parliamentary election is scheduled for 12 February 2026, alongside a referendum on democratic reforms.
Tarique’s return revitalised the BNP and strengthened its alliances. The Jamaat-e-Islami joined the 11-party coalition, while the NCP, initially a student-led reformist party, was drawn into the broader right-wing bloc. Analysts suggest that the upcoming elections may crystallise ideological divisions between an Islamic front and a nationalist, secular capitalist front.
Security Concerns and Violence
The assassination of prospective Dhaka-8 candidate Sharif Osman bin Hadi in December intensified fears, with rumours of additional targeted attacks circulating. Following Hadi’s death, coordinated assaults on Prothom Alo, The Daily Star, and cultural institutions occurred, revealing systemic lapses in law enforcement. Human rights advocates warned that these were not spontaneous “mob incidents” but targeted campaigns to suppress dissent.
Former IGP Muhammad Nurul Huda observed: “There’s a pattern using ideologically motivated actors to intimidate and eliminate opposition voices.” The attacks also included deaths and forced resignations, raising concerns over the rule of law ahead of national elections.
Shrinking Space for the Awami League
Since Sheikh Hasina’s exile, the Awami League has been cornered politically. Party offices were shuttered, leaders detained, and electoral participation effectively barred. Despite occasional protests, the party faces legal and organisational restrictions, leaving questions about its future political relevance.
Reforms and Electoral Challenges
The July National Charter, drafted during the interim government, highlighted divisions among parties. Of 84 agreed points, 67 faced dissent, leaving questions about implementation. The BNP and its allies remain cautious about “manufactured reforms,” while Jamaat mobilised around specific demands. The NCP seeks to establish itself as a third political force, yet uncertainty persists over its long-term stance.
Analysts warn that for 2026 to mark genuine progress, the election must be free, inclusive, and credible. Past elections, while providing moments of legitimacy, failed to fully institutionalise democratic norms. Observers stress that political unity and public participation are essential to realise the objectives of the July Uprising.
Outlook: Hope Amid Uncertainty
Despite the challenges, there is cautious optimism. Tarique Rahman has outlined a 31-point reform plan addressing employment, welfare, and state governance. Analysts note that the upcoming elections present an opportunity to consolidate institutional reform and revive public trust.
Prof Mustafizur Rahman summarises: “2025 was a year of attempted transformation. 2026 begins under a shadow of uncertainty. The first step is ensuring peaceful, participatory elections. The next is implementing reforms without infringing on citizens’ rights. Restoring state accountability is essential for democratic progress.”
The nation stands at a pivotal juncture. With hope and apprehension entwined, Bangladesh faces 2026 as a year of possibility—but only if elections are free, reforms genuine, and political actors committed to unity and accountability.
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The year 2025 closed a turbulent chapter in Bangladesh’s history. As 2026 begins, the nation stands at a crossroads: can elections, reforms, and political unity deliver what years of upheaval could not? Analysts suggest a three-year arc: 2024 was a year of hope, 2025 brought tension and uncertainty, and 2026 will determine whether this turbulence leads to genuine democratic progress or deeper disappointment.
A Political Vacuum and Emerging Actors
The passing of Begum Khaleda Zia dissolved the old political duopoly, creating space for new actors but also heightening uncertainty. Targeted assassinations, attacks on cultural and media institutions, and outbreaks of mob violence have shadowed attempts at reform. Political commentators argue that only a free and fair election can break the stalemate, though democratic transition also requires robust institutional reforms, which remain uncertain.
Nobel laureate and interim chief Muhammad Yunus has described the upcoming parliamentary elections and referendum as “a historic moment to chart Bangladesh’s future”, urging citizens to safeguard both the vote and the nation. Yet, the broader context is stark: “mob” violence has eroded democratic norms, assaults on newspaper offices have undermined independent journalism, and attacks on traditional cultural institutions like Chhayanaut Bhaban and Udichi Shilpigosthi reveal a new extremism.
Economic and Administrative Stagnation
Late 2025 reports highlight significant administrative and economic inertia. Many major decisions—both at state and household levels—were postponed as the nation awaited elections. Experts attribute this stagnation to a politicised bureaucracy, corruption, and weak governance. Promotions, postings, and resource allocation often ignored merit and efficiency, further slowing progress.
Economic indicators reflect this uncertainty. GDP growth rose modestly from 3.69% to 4.86% before dropping to 3.35% in Q4, with food inflation remaining a pressing concern. Foreign reserves recovered to $32.57 billion, yet revenue shortfalls and under-spending on the Annual Development Programme indicate structural gaps. CPD Fellow Mustafizur Rahman notes: “2025 began with challenges; some positive trends emerged, but many structural problems remain unresolved.”
Political Upheaval and the New Leadership
The departure of Sheikh Hasina in 2024 and Khaleda Zia in 2025 ended the era of the “Two Begums” in politics. With Khaleda’s passing, her son Tarique Rahman returned from seventeen years of exile, assuming BNP leadership. A parliamentary election is scheduled for 12 February 2026, alongside a referendum on democratic reforms.
Tarique’s return revitalised the BNP and strengthened its alliances. The Jamaat-e-Islami joined the 11-party coalition, while the NCP, initially a student-led reformist party, was drawn into the broader right-wing bloc. Analysts suggest that the upcoming elections may crystallise ideological divisions between an Islamic front and a nationalist, secular capitalist front.
Security Concerns and Violence
The assassination of prospective Dhaka-8 candidate Sharif Osman bin Hadi in December intensified fears, with rumours of additional targeted attacks circulating. Following Hadi’s death, coordinated assaults on Prothom Alo, The Daily Star, and cultural institutions occurred, revealing systemic lapses in law enforcement. Human rights advocates warned that these were not spontaneous “mob incidents” but targeted campaigns to suppress dissent.
Former IGP Muhammad Nurul Huda observed: “There’s a pattern using ideologically motivated actors to intimidate and eliminate opposition voices.” The attacks also included deaths and forced resignations, raising concerns over the rule of law ahead of national elections.
Shrinking Space for the Awami League
Since Sheikh Hasina’s exile, the Awami League has been cornered politically. Party offices were shuttered, leaders detained, and electoral participation effectively barred. Despite occasional protests, the party faces legal and organisational restrictions, leaving questions about its future political relevance.
Reforms and Electoral Challenges
The July National Charter, drafted during the interim government, highlighted divisions among parties. Of 84 agreed points, 67 faced dissent, leaving questions about implementation. The BNP and its allies remain cautious about “manufactured reforms,” while Jamaat mobilised around specific demands. The NCP seeks to establish itself as a third political force, yet uncertainty persists over its long-term stance.
Analysts warn that for 2026 to mark genuine progress, the election must be free, inclusive, and credible. Past elections, while providing moments of legitimacy, failed to fully institutionalise democratic norms. Observers stress that political unity and public participation are essential to realise the objectives of the July Uprising.
Outlook: Hope Amid Uncertainty
Despite the challenges, there is cautious optimism. Tarique Rahman has outlined a 31-point reform plan addressing employment, welfare, and state governance. Analysts note that the upcoming elections present an opportunity to consolidate institutional reform and revive public trust.
Prof Mustafizur Rahman summarises: “2025 was a year of attempted transformation. 2026 begins under a shadow of uncertainty. The first step is ensuring peaceful, participatory elections. The next is implementing reforms without infringing on citizens’ rights. Restoring state accountability is essential for democratic progress.”
The nation stands at a pivotal juncture. With hope and apprehension entwined, Bangladesh faces 2026 as a year of possibility—but only if elections are free, reforms genuine, and political actors committed to unity and accountability.
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