US President Donald Trump has returned to the White House for a second term and once again reached for his old weapon: tariffs. On April 2, 2025, he declared a "national economic emergency" and imposed sweeping tariffs on all US trading partners under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. From April 5, a 10 percent baseline tariff took effect across the board, with even steeper rates for countries running large trade surpluses with the US — 34 percent on China, 32 percent on Taiwan, 25 percent on South Korea, and 24 percent on Japan. Trump claims these measures will protect American industry, safeguard jobs, and correct “unfair” trade imbalances.

Yet, the reality suggests that this aggressive, unilateral approach may backfire. Rather than turning towards the US, East Asian economies are gravitating towards each other, and—inevitably—towards China. America's retreat from global leadership, once a matter of political choice, is now turning into a structural reality, largely accelerated by Trump’s "America First" policies. If this withdrawal persists, it could soon become irreversible, paving the way for China to assume a more assertive leadership role on the world stage.

China, under President Xi Jinping, is not standing idle. Recently, Beijing published a white paper outlining its “Integrated National Security Concept,” presenting a broad vision of security that transcends military concerns to include political, economic, technological, and even cultural dimensions. At its core lies an unequivocal assertion: the Communist Party’s leadership is the bedrock of China’s stability in an increasingly volatile world. China holds Western powers, particularly the US, responsible for global instability, accusing them of interventions and hegemonic control. Given the chaotic and ambiguous manner in which the US is disengaging from its global responsibilities, China’s argument is not entirely baseless.

Although the recent trade talks between Washington and Beijing in Geneva and London offered a temporary truce, they failed to address the deeper structural conflicts. Trump, in his characteristic style, trumpeted these piecemeal deals as victories. But Beijing interprets them as tactical manoeuvres that leave China's long-term strategy intact, a strategy that has been maturing since the onset of the US-China trade war in 2018.

China's response has been a blend of defensive adjustments and offensive assertiveness. On the defensive front, Beijing has diversified trade routes, sought alternatives to the dollar-dominated financial system, and boosted investments in strategic sectors like artificial intelligence and green technology. Domestic consumption has been targeted not just to fuel economic growth, but to develop internal demand in critical industries. On the offensive side, China has tightened export controls, especially on vital materials like rare earth minerals, demonstrating its ability to retaliate decisively.

When the Trump administration escalated tariffs, China responded with unwavering firmness, reshaping the very terms of the trade conflict. Ironically, Trump's policies have inadvertently exposed America's own vulnerabilities, particularly its dependence on Chinese raw materials. The recent Chinese export restrictions on rare earth minerals sent shockwaves through US manufacturing sectors, forcing companies to grapple with rising costs. In this economic chess game, China has secured a propaganda victory, portraying Trump's erratic tariff wars as a reckless gamble that isolates the US while strengthening China’s resolve.

Across the Global South, nations disillusioned with Western models of development are finding resonance in Xi Jinping’s narrative of a world undergoing a “once-in-a-century transformation.” They see in China a disciplined, self-reliant power, steadfast in the face of American pressure. Beijing is positioning itself not as an aggressor but as a stabilising force — a leader in multilateral cooperation, an investor in developing economies, and a defender of global justice. The Trump administration, in contrast, has abandoned the pillars of US post-Cold War influence: diplomacy, foreign aid, and cultural engagement. Trump's approach reduces foreign policy to tariffs, sanctions, and military posturing, exemplified by the recent unilateral strike on Iran's nuclear facilities — an act his administration boasts as a "bold step" towards Middle East peace, but which in reality has further eroded America's moral authority.

While Trump insists that these actions are necessary to protect US national security, critics argue that his economic nationalism is a strategic blunder. His policies — tariffs on China, restrictions on critical minerals, bans on high-tech exports — are not rejuvenating American industry but are instead accelerating US isolation. By sidelining diplomatic engagement and alienating allies, Trump is inadvertently pushing them towards China. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) now accounts for 30 percent of global GDP, and discussions about China joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership — a trade bloc originally designed by the US to contain China — are gaining momentum. Meanwhile, trilateral meetings between China, Japan, and South Korea signal a newfound regional unity aimed at collectively navigating the tariff crisis.

China's strategy is slow, calculated, and patient. Xi Jinping believes that time will vindicate his vision. He is playing the long game, quietly consolidating influence while Trump’s tariff offensives drive long-standing US allies into Beijing’s orbit. China has already learned to survive US technology bans, as seen in Huawei’s post-ban recovery, and is now preparing for similar battles over companies like ByteDance, the parent firm of TikTok, which Trump is pressuring to sell to American ownership. Though these policies have inflicted pain on China's economy, Beijing is no stranger to economic shocks. The country endured massive layoffs during the 1990s market reforms, withstood the 2008 global financial crisis, and adapted through each blow.

For Trump, tariffs are a tool of leverage; for Xi, they are an opportunity for strategic realignment. The more Trump tries to sever economic ties, the more China invests in technological self-reliance and diversifies its global partnerships. Trump’s argument is that he’s defending American jobs and sovereignty, yet his policies are accelerating a global rebalancing that favours China. The United States, once the architect of the global economic order, now finds itself on the defensive, watching as the very institutions it built slip from its grasp.

In the end, Trump may score some quick victories, headline-grabbing deals, or symbolic shows of strength. But in the long game of global leadership, it is Xi Jinping who is quietly tightening his grip — methodical, patient, and unshaken. As Trump antagonizes and alienates, Xi calmly builds. The field is shifting, and control is steadily moving into the hands of a quiet but calculating China.

(Rayhan Ahmed Tapadar is a researcher and columnist. Contact: [email protected])