With interim head Muhammad Yunus vowing to deliver parliamentary elections in February, and the Election Commission promising a vote “transparent as a mirror”, the countdown to the national polls has begun.

Yet, beyond the rhetoric lies a formidable gauntlet: law-and-order instability, and the looming shadow of shattered voter confidence during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure.

Officials, analysts, and civil society alike warn that the real challenge for the interim government is not just scheduling the vote, but securing its credibility.

The National Citizen Party (NCP) has demanded a Constituent Assembly instead of elections, while the Jamaat-e-Islami has tied its participation to reforms -- demands that could complicate the timetable.

Bangladesh has navigated such turbulence before. In 2007–08, under the army-controlled caretaker administration, parliamentary elections were delayed nearly two years under emergency rule. That government only succeeded after fraught negotiations with the Awami League and the BNP.

This time, uncertainty over the timing subsided after Yunus met BNP’s acting chairman in London. In his televised address on Aug 5, marking the anniversary of the July Uprising, Yunus announced that national elections would be held before Ramadan in February -- a pledge also contained in the London joint declaration.

Political analyst Professor Kazi Mohammad Mahbobor Rahman stressed that dialogue among all parties remains critical.

“Candidates, parties, voters and government are bound in an electoral relationship,” he told bdnews24.com. “The Election Commission must maintain that relationship through understanding, and the government must support it. The success of the election depends on that.”

The commission has already released its updated draft voter roll, showing 126.17 million registered voters as of Jun 30.

The fall of Hasina’s government on Aug 5 last year, after the Uprising, continues to shape the interim administration’s burden. Over 800 people were officially reported killed in the protests. Hasina fled to India as her 15-year rule collapsed. On Aug 8, Yunus assumed leadership of the interim government, tasked above all with ensuring a credible election.

The Awami League, now banned under the Anti-Terrorism Act since May 10, is absent from the process. The Commission also suspended the party’s registration. Under Hasina, the caretaker government system to oversee elections had been abolished, and elections in 2014, 2018 and 2024 were conducted under partisan governments, each marred by allegations of rigging.

Although barred from the ballot, the ousted party remains a factor in political debate and public gatherings. The Chief Advisor’s Office has instructed the Commission to be ready for polls before Ramadan.

Chief Election Commissioner AMM Nasir Uddin admitted voter confidence remains the greatest challenge.

“People have lost trust in the Election Commission and the system,” he said on Aug 6. “Bringing them back to the polling stations is the number one challenge.”

He pledged elections “transparent as a mirror,” emphasising the role of the press. “We want the world to see there is no deficit in our sincerity or effort.”

Concerns over security loom equally large. Political violence, mob attacks and police inaction during unrest last year still resonate. BNP, after a meeting with the CEC, said it was not overly worried but acknowledged concerns.

“The police role is weak, but that will improve in four to five months,” senior leader Nazrul Islam Khan said.

Jamaat echoed worries on Aug 10, with deputy chief Syed Abdullah Mohammad Taher insisting reforms were required to ensure a “level playing field”. That same day, Election Commissioner Abul Fazal Mohammad Sanaullah admitted law and order was a “constant challenge” and warned of efforts to derail the polls.

Both the NCP and the Islami Andolan Bangladesh voiced dissatisfaction with security conditions.

The home ministry has sought to reassure. Home Advisor Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury announced more than 80,000 troops would be deployed alongside police and Ansar, with support from the RAB, the BGB and the Navy.

On Aug 10, he said for the first time, armed Ansar personnel would guard presiding officers. “Sometimes, presiding officers are attacked. This will give them armed protection,” he explained.

Jahangir added that security was not only the job of law enforcers. “Participants and the Election Commission also bear responsibility. Ultimately, it is the people who must come to the polling stations.”

In another measure, all district police chiefs and officers-in-charge (OC) will be reassigned by lottery before the polls to prevent partisan placements.

“Candidates often want their preferred DC, SP or OC,” Jahangir said on Aug 6. “This time, we will conduct lotteries in front of journalists.”

Election Commissioner Md Anwarul Islam Sarkar said he believed order would improve once all stakeholders became fully engaged. “When everyone is election-oriented, naturally, law and order will also improve,” he said.

‘FEARS UNFOUNDED’

Some political parties have argued that conditions for an election are not yet in place, with a few even warning the polls scheduled for February may not materialise. A leader of the NCP went further, suggesting the vote might be delayed, triggering unease among other parties.

When asked about those concerns, Election Commissioner Abdur Rahmanel Masud dismissed them.

“Politicians can express their opinions as part of their strategies. They are free to say what they wish. But since we have received a letter from the chief advisor, we are working on that basis. That is our responsibility, God willing,” he told bdnews24.com.

He added that the commission no longer even entertains such “fears”, insisting the EC sees “no major challenge” to holding the polls.

“We do not even consider challenges as challenges anymore. We have received our message. According to that message, we will do what is necessary for the election, God willing.”

Masud said February remains the singular focus of preparations. “That is the message. We are working with February in mind. Our tasks have been organised accordingly.”

On Saturday, Home Advisor Jahangir reinforced the timeline, telling reporters after an event in Mohammadpur that the election would take place on schedule.

“The chief advisor has spoken. No one can overrule that. The election will happen in the month he announced. We do not need to listen to what anyone else says.”

A day earlier, Chief Advisor’s Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam struck a similar note, saying “no force” could obstruct a February vote.

Speaking in Magura, he added: “After the monsoon, from September onwards, an electoral atmosphere will spread through neighbourhoods. Any doubts people may have will vanish. The election will take place in February, before Ramadan.”

Following Yunus’s announcement of the election timeline, CEC Nasir Uddin confirmed preparations were advancing despite “various challenges”.

“Hopefully, there will be no shortcomings in our preparations,” he said.

The commission plans to announce the schedule two months before the vote, in December.

The EC has indicated it may issue the schedule in early December if voting is set for the first half of February. From the announcement of the schedule until 15 days after the vote, the commission will retain authority over the transfer of government officials and the maintenance of the electoral environment.

Nasir Uddin said law and order were improving and should continue to do so.

“Before elections, everyone becomes preoccupied with the vote, and cooperation helps improve the situation. We do not believe law and order will be a challenge.”

He urged political parties to cooperate in creating a level playing field alongside the commission’s efforts.

Election analyst Abdul Alim, a member of the Electoral Reform Commission, said law and order were improving and the government was proactive.

“The real challenge for the commission will come after the schedule is announced. At that point, ensuring a level playing field for all candidates will be essential.”

He also emphasised the need to install CCTV cameras at polling stations as directed by the government.

Badiul Alam Majumdar, head of the reform commission, warned that without government cooperation, the EC cannot conduct a fair election.

“No uncertainty about the next election exists. It must be held within the announced timeframe. A level playing field is possible. If all parties act responsibly, voters will queue without fear.”

But, he cautioned, if political parties rely on muscle, money and manipulation, a fair election will not be possible.

ROADMAP AND JULY CHARTER

The EC plans to release a roadmap this week. Secretary Akhtar Ahmed said it would outline a timeline for tasks to be completed ahead of the polls.

The announcement follows Yunus’s July Uprising Day speech, dubbed the July Proclamation. While the NCP described it as “incomplete”, it accepted the statement.

However, the party has taken a hard line on the legal basis of the National Charter, also known as the July Charter, agreed upon by political parties for reforms, warning it would make no concessions. Jamaat has also threatened legal action unless the charter is given constitutional legitimacy.

The NCP has demanded a Constituent Assembly election to scrap the existing Constitution and draft a new one.

At a party meeting on Saturday, coordinator Nasiruddin Patwari said: “For the safety of those who were martyred or injured in the mass uprising, a new constitution is essential.”

He also launched a blistering attack on the chief advisor, alluding to a London meeting between Yunus and Tarique Rahman.

“The chief advisor went to London and prostrated. But his prostration was not to the people of Bangladesh. That is where it must be -- because they are the ones who seated him.”

EXPERT VOICES

DU’s Prof Mahbobor said challenges were a normal part of elections worldwide.

“We have faced such situations before and usually overcome them within three or four months, except for 2007–08. If the government and commission have the will, these are not insurmountable.”

Munira Khan, president of Fair Election Monitoring Alliance, said: “The election must be held on time, as announced. All political parties should think of the country and its voters, and ensure nothing obstructs the polls. Only elected representatives can truly shoulder responsibility for the nation.”

She urged parties to restrain violence and sabotage. “If they have love for democracy and the country, they should cooperate so that the election takes place on schedule.”

Courtesy: bdnews24.com