Bangladesh’s political landscape is once again entering turbulent waters as the debate over proportional representation (PR) threatens to overshadow preparations for the next national election, scheduled for early February. The interim government insists the polls will be held on time, but analysts warn that unresolved reform questions and the rise of a united Islamist bloc are fuelling instability and could reshape the country’s democratic trajectory.

The PR system has become the most divisive issue in the run-up to the polls, pitting the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) against Islamist groups led by Jamaat-e-Islami. Each side accuses the other of endangering democracy — BNP claims Jamaat is pushing the nation towards chaos, while Jamaat insists PR opponents are trying to delay the election and block electoral reform.

The emergence of a new Islamist alliance has added fuel to the fire. In the wake of Bangladesh Islami Chhatra Shibir’s victory in the Dhaka University Central Students’ Union (DUCSU) elections, Islamist groups are emboldened, arguing that their unity could deliver them a breakthrough at the national level. Rallying under the motto “united in faith, divided no more”, Jamaat now sits at the centre of a coalition that includes Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB), Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, Nizam-e-Islam Party and others. Seven Islamic parties are holding simultaneous protest marches in Dhaka demanding that the polls be held under the July Charter, which enshrines PR as a key demand.

This rising coordination poses a major question for BNP: can it win enough seats with its pro-liberation allies to form the next government, or will a united Islamist front erode its vote bank and tilt the balance of power?

Bangladesh’s Islamist movements remain deeply divided, with schisms along doctrinal, organisational and strategic lines. Many sceptics argue that uniting all Islamist parties is a near-impossible task given the differences between Qawmi and Alia madrasa networks, Sufi-oriented groups and hard-line factions. Yet signs of coordination are undeniable, with leaders openly considering single-candidate strategies to avoid splitting the Islamist vote.

What is clear is that Islamist parties sense a historic chance to shape the next government. Whether they can overcome decades of mistrust — and whether BNP can hold its ground while balancing competing alliances — will determine not only the outcome of February’s polls but perhaps the direction of Bangladeshi politics for years to come.

BNP, Jamaat and the newly formed National Citizens Party (NCP) are all courting Islamic groups, though BNP officially denies any formal pre-election alliance. Privately, senior BNP leaders admit that seat-sharing talks are taking place.

The greatest wildcard remains Jamaat-e-Islami — the most organised yet most controversial Islamist party. Its staunch opposition to Bangladesh’s independence in 1971 and its chequered role in past elections have made it a deeply polarising force, even within the wider Islamist camp. Nevertheless, its disciplined organisation and loyal grassroots network make it a political actor no party can afford to ignore. Reports suggest that five Qawmi madrasa-based parties are in advanced negotiations with Jamaat and Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB), while the BNP is simultaneously working to win over the same factions.

Charmonai Pir’s IAB has emerged as a powerful actor, pledging to maintain unity and field single candidates under the slogan “bringing votes into one box.” Hefazat-e-Islam, which had previously kept a distance from politics, is also engaging with BNP and Jamaat, signalling its potential kingmaking role.

But unifying all Islamist factions remains fraught. Some groups insist they will keep equal distance from both BNP and Jamaat until the election schedule is finalised. Jamaat’s ideological roots in Abul A’la Maududi’s call for a global Islamic state remain unacceptable to Sufi-oriented factions, who accuse Jamaat of undermining traditional Islamic practices.

BNP strategists see both risk and opportunity in this scenario. They believe Jamaat’s difficulty in reconciling with rival groups could leave space for BNP to expand its own influence, particularly within the madrasa network. Alia madrasa enrolment has risen sharply, even as mainstream school numbers have fallen, creating a growing constituency BNP hopes to mobilise.

The Awami League, ousted earlier this year, also tried to capture the religious vote through massive mosque and madrasa development programmes. But allegations of corruption in project funds alienated many clerics, fuelling anti-AL sentiment and opening the door for Islamist parties to position themselves as an alternative force.

Although Islamist leaders deny any formal alliance, political observers believe a more structured coalition is likely once the Election Commission announces the February schedule. PR, curbs on prime ministerial powers and reform of the presidential election process are shared demands that could serve as the glue for future cooperation.

For BNP, the next few months are critical. Its strained partnership with Jamaat risks alienating pro-liberation allies, but avoiding Islamist engagement could splinter the opposition vote and give rivals the advantage.

What is clear is that Islamist parties sense a historic chance to shape the next government. Whether they can overcome decades of mistrust — and whether BNP can hold its ground while balancing competing alliances — will determine not only the outcome of February’s polls but perhaps the direction of Bangladeshi politics for years to come.