When the Arakan Army wrested what it called “absolute control” of Rakhine State from Myanmar’s military junta, a measure of quiet had briefly settled across the Bangladesh–Myanmar border.

But the calm has vanished.

Fresh fighting on the other side has stirred a new wave of anxiety among residents of Ukhiya and Teknaf.

From across the Naf River, roughly 2.5km away, stray bullets and ammunition have begun flying into Bangladeshi villages in Teknaf’s Whykong Union.

On Oct 25, a bullet hit and injured Chhenuara Begum from Techchhibridge. That day, another round tore into a nearby shop. The next morning, a shot pierced the tin roof of Ayub Islam’s house in Amtali village.

The question many now ask: if Myanmar’s military has retreated, who exactly is fighting the Arakan Army?

In Ukhiya’s Rohingya Camp No. 3, community leader Md Siddique said: “Friends and relatives in Shahabbazar, Kwanchiprong and nearby areas are telling us there is intense fighting between the Arakan Army (AA) and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). I’ve heard several fighters on both sides have been killed.

“Some Rohingyas in the camp have also been injured by the clashes. We heard about a group of around 17 people -- some were killed, some remain missing.”

Displaced Rohingya refugees living in Bangladesh, relying on relatives in Maungdaw and Buthidaung, say both the junta forces and ARSA–RSO fighters are battling the Arakan Army. The military wants to recapture the bases it lost. Rohingya groups say they want a path back to their homeland.

The result is predictable: the entire 217km Bangladesh–Myanmar border has become a zone of fear.

Mine blasts, stray gunfire, fishermen captured at sea, Rohingyas fleeing in panic, and injured fighters slipping into Bangladesh for medical care -- these have become near-routine events.

Public representatives and security officials rarely discuss these matters openly. But international media continue to report on Myanmar’s spiral of violence, detailing both the Arakan Army’s operations and the worsening security landscape in Rakhine.

‘SUCCESSFUL’ PAST, HINTS OF ‘INACTIVITY’

In 2024, Myanmar’s armed resistance groups had secured remarkable battlefield victories against the junta. The Arakan Army’s “Rakhine triumph” was a key part of that wave.

The BBC notes that the “Three Brotherhood Alliance” -- comprising the Arakan Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) -- had pushed the junta out of vast stretches of territory.

A combination of global geopolitical shifts, the flow of heavy weapons, greater unity among resistance groups and shared access to arms helped force the junta out of numerous strategic trading routes and military bases.

Riding that momentum, the Arakan Army seized 14 of Rakhine’s 17 administrative zones in a surprisingly short span.

But a year later, the tide is shifting.

The Myanmar military has begun reasserting control over Shan and Kachin states. Resistance forces have been driven back. The MNDAA has recently agreed to halt its war against the junta. In the eyes of analysts tracking the conflict, the sweeping victories of last year have given way to a phase of “stagnation”.

They emphasise that while the Arakan Army has not collapsed like some groups in Shan or Kachin, it is under sharp pressure. ARSA and RSO attacks are complicating its grip over bases and its attempts to restore order in Rakhine.

A few weeks earlier, Arakan Army chief Tun Myat Naing accused “Bangladeshi officials” of aiding ARSA and RSO assaults. The Border Guard Bangladesh has dismissed the claim as “misleading”.

The BGB reiterated that the ARSA and RSO are always viewed as a threat to border stability.

It said, “In northern Maungdaw, prolonged fighting has plunged the Arakan Army into a deep crisis. Involvement in the drug trade, disputes over loot-sharing, plummeting morale and severe mental fatigue have led many fighters to desert.”

WAR, GUNFIRE, FEAR

Amid such turbulence, both ARSA and RSO appear to have stepped up their offensives. Border residents say bursts of heavy gunfire echo almost nightly from inside Myanmar, punctuated at times by powerful explosions.

In Rahmater Beel, Dhamankhali, Thaingkhali, Balukhali and the western Tumbro-para in Naikhongchhari, gunfire has triggered deep public fear.

Komoruddin Mukul, a teacher in Thaingkhali, said: “At night, we heard intense gunfire. It felt like a major battle was raging on the other side. I’ve never heard anything like it.”

A Rohingya camp leader reported ongoing clashes between ARSA and the Arakan Army in Dekubonia, located across the border in Maungdaw district.

Palongkhali Union Parishad Chairman and Rohingya Repatriation Committee Member-Secretary M Gofur Uddin Chowdhury said: “Gunfire and explosions occur frequently across the border. Just a kilometre away lies the massive Rohingya camp. Among them are the locals like us, trapped in extreme uncertainty.

“Shells frequently fall into our villages. Gunfire at night spreads terror. Border security is now genuinely under threat.”

He added, “This conflict may be Myanmar’s internal matter, but its consequences fall directly on us living in Bangladesh’s border region.”

In Bandarban’s Alikadam Upazila, however, Kurukpata Union chairman Kraptung Mro described a brief lull: “For a week, we haven’t heard gunfire along the border. Earlier, shots were common every few days.”

He added that last year alone, between 8,000 and 10,000 Rohingya people crossed through the Poamuhuri frontier into Bangladesh and dispersed across Alikadam.

“Middlemen move them for money. Many of these agents were involved in cattle smuggling two or three years ago. They know the hills and all the crossing points.”

According to Kraptung, “At different times, when Rohingya people crossed into Bangladesh, BGB personnel pushed them back. But even then, agents guided them through hidden routes to various places.”