Bangladesh stands at the brink of reclaiming a democracy lost for over fifteen years. Yet, with polling days away, a surge in pre-election violence threatens to derail the vote and undermine its legitimacy.

With just 48 hours remaining before polling day on Thursday, February 12, Bangladesh’s electoral marathon has reached its final stretch. Nineteen days of rallies, manifestos and fervent campaigning are drawing to a close. Political energy is high. So too is anxiety.

On the streets of Dhaka, voters speak of cautious optimism. Many say they intend to vote for the first time in years, encouraged by changes in the political landscape. But this optimism is brittle. Safety, not choice, has become the decisive calculation.

“We want to vote,” several residents said, “but only if the situation stays calm.” This reaction is sparking red light to the nation’s dream for transition to democracy with reforms necessary for the country to keep democratic process.

But the recent incidents of political violence in the political landscape may shatter the dream by refraining voters to vote for potential candidates which was seen in the past As polling day approaches, pre-election violence is once again rising, casting a long and familiar shadow over the democratic process.

In neighbourhoods rattled by clashes and intimidation, fear is already emptying polling centres before a single vote is cast. In such an environment, even the most popular candidate can be quietly defeated—not at the ballot box, but by the absence of supporters who choose safety over participation.

This raises a troubling question: will voters turn out in sufficient numbers to reclaim the democracy they lost over the past 17 years, or will fear once again silence the majority? And are candidates prepared—or willing—to ensure that polling centres remain peaceful enough for genuine competition?

The warning signs are unmistakable. Over the past week, violence has flared across multiple districts. On Sunday, February 8, supporters of BNP and Jamaat-backed candidates clashed repeatedly in Bauphal upazila of Patuakhali, leaving around 50 people injured before police restored order. A day earlier, in Bhola Sadar, confrontations between supporters of Islami Andolan Bangladesh and Jamaat-e-Islami injured at least seven people.

According to Police Headquarters, at least 411 election-related violent incidents were recorded nationwide between the announcement of the election schedule on December 12 and February 7. These included five deaths, 127 clashes between rival supporters, 43 incidents of campaign obstruction, 35 attacks on election offices and institutions, 19 cases of blockades or protests, and four incidents involving illegal firearms.

The interim government has acknowledged five deaths linked directly to election violence. But civil society organisations paint a more alarming picture. Transparency International Bangladesh reported that 15 political leaders and activists were killed within 36 days of the schedule announcement—nearly three times the government’s figure.

Other rights groups, including the Human Rights Support Society and Ain o Salish Kendra, documented hundreds of injuries and a sharp upward trend in violence as polling day nears.

Authorities argue that discrepancies stem from differing methodologies. Rights groups count deaths involving politically affiliated individuals during the election period, while the government limits its tally to cases with verified and direct electoral links. Officials warn that conflating the two risks creating panic.

Yet for voters on the ground, the distinction offers little reassurance.

Pre-election violence does not win votes; it empties polling stations. It punishes moderate and issue-based candidates by driving away peace-loving voters. In Bangladesh, electoral violence has often decided who stays home, not who wins hearts.

Data from previous elections underline the pattern. The 2024 parliamentary election recorded 534 violent incidents in just 21 days. The 2018 election saw 414 incidents and 22 deaths. The 2014 polls were marred by 530 incidents and at least 115 fatalities. Violence, far from being incidental, has repeatedly shaped turnout, margins and legitimacy.

This year, the scale of security deployment is unprecedented. Nearly one million law enforcement personnel are set to be deployed nationwide, supported by drones, body-worn cameras, dog squads and CCTV surveillance. Police insist they are prepared to ensure a neutral and credible vote.

“We want this election to set a benchmark for the future,” Dhaka Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sheikh Md Sajjat Ali said on Monday, pledging professionalism and impartial enforcement.

Yet memories of past bloodshed remain fresh. Security hardware alone cannot erase the fear that spreads faster than reassurance.

Security analysts said the election-time violence reflects a deeper political culture. Democracy, the argue, is often discussed but rarely practised. Control of polling centres, intimidation of rivals and the misuse of digital platforms to provoke unrest have become recurring features rather than aberrations.

Political theory offers a sobering lens. The late political scientist Guillermo O’Donnell warned that electoral democracy can coexist with “low-intensity citizenship”—systems where rights formally exist but are unevenly protected.

Some citizens experience the state fully; others encounter it only sporadically. Seen this way, election-linked insecurity is not evidence of democratic absence, but of democratic incompleteness.

As pre-election violence escalates, political competition risks becoming a test of endurance rather than ideas. Peace-loving voters retreat. Turnout shrinks. And candidates with genuine public backing find themselves undone—not by rejection, but by fear.

The danger is stark: if violence continues to rise, Bangladesh’s long-awaited democratic moment may arrive diminished. Not because the people do not care—but because too many are too afraid to show up.