Tuesday, 26 August, 2025
Bangladesh is once again inching toward the brink. Political strategist Farhad Mazhar has issued a blunt warning: under current volatile conditions, holding national elections would be “a pathway to disaster,” risking deeper instability and even dragging the military into crisis.
Speaking at the National Press Club on Tuesday, Mazhar — a key figure in the July 2024 Movement that toppled Sheikh Hasina — reminded the audience how the uprising forced Hasina, her cabinet, and political backers to flee. His warning came as Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, during an official visit to Malaysia, reiterated that his interim government was ready to hand over power to elected representatives, pointing to the already-declared election timetable.
The political frontlines are hardening. National Citizen Party (NCP) chief coordinator Nasiruddin Patwary has already rejected the February 2025 election date, insisting that the key reform demands of the July Uprising must be met first.
For analysts, the stakes are clear: Yunus’s interim administration is navigating a narrow path from the chaos of Hasina’s ouster toward elections, but without a broad consensus, the process could collapse into confrontation. Mazhar and others warn that pushing ahead without urgent reforms risks destabilising the armed forces — already overstretched by internal security duties — and cementing elite control.
While the BNP is pressing for polls as part of a wider reform package, deep rifts remain between BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and the NCP. BNP’s push gained momentum after Yunus met BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman in London, where both appeared to agree on a February election date. Yunus later confirmed this publicly in his August 5 anniversary speech.
But Tarique has since shifted from his election demand by December and accepted the February schedule calling it essential for a “credible” vote under the interim setup. “The people of this country want to see, without delay, a free and fair national election… The people are not subjects of government mercy,” he declared from London.
BNP leader Tarique Rahman is right in saying that a credible election is essential for Bangladesh to move forward, as it underpins political legitimacy, public trust, and national stability. When citizens are confident their votes truly count, they gain a sense of ownership over the nation’s future, helping to reduce political unrest and violence.
Free, fair, and inclusive elections produce a government that genuinely reflects the will of the people, enabling it to implement policies with broad public support. Such legitimacy strengthens democratic institutions, attracts foreign investment, and builds confidence among international partners who see political stability as key to economic cooperation.
Free, fair, and inclusive elections produce a government that genuinely reflects the will of the people, enabling it to implement policies with broad public support. Such legitimacy strengthens democratic institutions, attracts foreign investment, and builds confidence among international partners who see political stability as key to economic cooperation.
In contrast, flawed or manipulated polls breed mistrust, deepen polarization, and risk long-term instability that can stall economic growth. In Bangladesh—where political rivalry often turns confrontational—a credible electoral process could pave the way for dialogue, compromise, and collaborative nation-building. It would also empower citizens across political divides, reinforcing the principle that leadership should be decided by peaceful competition, not coercion or corruption. Ultimately, a credible election is not just a democratic formality—it is the driving force for sustainable democracy, economic resilience, and social harmony.
Mazhar, however, sees a different danger. He accuses the interim government of paving the way for the return of “looter mafia” networks that thrived under past regimes, while ignoring constitutional reforms. He alleges that costly elections without grassroots participation will only reinforce entrenched elites, perpetuating the same corruption the uprising sought to end. He also accused the government of bypassing the military on strategic issues, such as the proposed economic corridor through Chittagong Port.
Reflecting on last year’s events, Mazhar said Bangladesh had “true independence” for only four days after Hasina’s fall, before the interim government took over on August 8, 2024.
Mazhar, however, sees a different danger. He accuses the interim government of paving the way for the return of “looter mafia” networks that thrived under past regimes, while ignoring constitutional reforms. He alleges that costly elections without grassroots participation will only reinforce entrenched elites, perpetuating the same corruption the uprising sought to end. He also accused the government of bypassing the military on strategic issues, such as the proposed economic corridor through Chittagong Port.
Military and Political Calculations
Mazhar’s warning has stirred speculation over whether he is voicing unspoken concerns within the armed forces — the same institution that played a decisive role in Yunus’s appointment. Some analysts are sceptical, noting that Army Chief General Waqar-uz-Zaman has already signalled support for holding elections by December.
Still, the interim government faces a daunting balancing act. It has introduced some reforms and fixed an election schedule, yet law and order is deteriorating, the economy remains fragile, and Awami League-aligned forces are accused of fuelling unrest via social media to derail the transition. BNP’s rivals believe a fair election could crush the Awami League’s chances of a comeback. Jamaat, meanwhile, is threatening a boycott unless proportional representation is introduced — a demand BNP rejects.
Still, the interim government faces a daunting balancing act. It has introduced some reforms and fixed an election schedule, yet law and order is deteriorating, the economy remains fragile, and Awami League-aligned forces are accused of fuelling unrest via social media to derail the transition. BNP’s rivals believe a fair election could crush the Awami League’s chances of a comeback. Jamaat, meanwhile, is threatening a boycott unless proportional representation is introduced — a demand BNP rejects.
Storm Clouds Over the Political Landscape
The unity that drove Hasina from power is fracturing fast. If the election timetable is pushed without consensus, unrest could return — and the military could once again become the final arbiter. Mazhar hinted at this scenario, but history warns against romanticising military rule: past interventions have rarely delivered stability or democracy.
Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. Citizens want a credible, inclusive election. But if the political class continues its game of brinkmanship, the country could bypass the ballot box entirely — and find itself staring at the barrel of the barracks once again.
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Bangladesh is once again inching toward the brink. Political strategist Farhad Mazhar has issued a blunt warning: under current volatile conditions, holding national elections would be “a pathway to disaster,” risking deeper instability and even dragging the military into crisis.
Speaking at the National Press Club on Tuesday, Mazhar — a key figure in the July 2024 Movement that toppled Sheikh Hasina — reminded the audience how the uprising forced Hasina, her cabinet, and political backers to flee. His warning came as Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, during an official visit to Malaysia, reiterated that his interim government was ready to hand over power to elected representatives, pointing to the already-declared election timetable.
The political frontlines are hardening. National Citizen Party (NCP) chief coordinator Nasiruddin Patwary has already rejected the February 2025 election date, insisting that the key reform demands of the July Uprising must be met first.
For analysts, the stakes are clear: Yunus’s interim administration is navigating a narrow path from the chaos of Hasina’s ouster toward elections, but without a broad consensus, the process could collapse into confrontation. Mazhar and others warn that pushing ahead without urgent reforms risks destabilising the armed forces — already overstretched by internal security duties — and cementing elite control.
While the BNP is pressing for polls as part of a wider reform package, deep rifts remain between BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and the NCP. BNP’s push gained momentum after Yunus met BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman in London, where both appeared to agree on a February election date. Yunus later confirmed this publicly in his August 5 anniversary speech.
But Tarique has since shifted from his election demand by December and accepted the February schedule calling it essential for a “credible” vote under the interim setup. “The people of this country want to see, without delay, a free and fair national election… The people are not subjects of government mercy,” he declared from London.
BNP leader Tarique Rahman is right in saying that a credible election is essential for Bangladesh to move forward, as it underpins political legitimacy, public trust, and national stability. When citizens are confident their votes truly count, they gain a sense of ownership over the nation’s future, helping to reduce political unrest and violence.
Free, fair, and inclusive elections produce a government that genuinely reflects the will of the people, enabling it to implement policies with broad public support. Such legitimacy strengthens democratic institutions, attracts foreign investment, and builds confidence among international partners who see political stability as key to economic cooperation.
Free, fair, and inclusive elections produce a government that genuinely reflects the will of the people, enabling it to implement policies with broad public support. Such legitimacy strengthens democratic institutions, attracts foreign investment, and builds confidence among international partners who see political stability as key to economic cooperation.
In contrast, flawed or manipulated polls breed mistrust, deepen polarization, and risk long-term instability that can stall economic growth. In Bangladesh—where political rivalry often turns confrontational—a credible electoral process could pave the way for dialogue, compromise, and collaborative nation-building. It would also empower citizens across political divides, reinforcing the principle that leadership should be decided by peaceful competition, not coercion or corruption. Ultimately, a credible election is not just a democratic formality—it is the driving force for sustainable democracy, economic resilience, and social harmony.
Mazhar, however, sees a different danger. He accuses the interim government of paving the way for the return of “looter mafia” networks that thrived under past regimes, while ignoring constitutional reforms. He alleges that costly elections without grassroots participation will only reinforce entrenched elites, perpetuating the same corruption the uprising sought to end. He also accused the government of bypassing the military on strategic issues, such as the proposed economic corridor through Chittagong Port.
Reflecting on last year’s events, Mazhar said Bangladesh had “true independence” for only four days after Hasina’s fall, before the interim government took over on August 8, 2024.
Mazhar, however, sees a different danger. He accuses the interim government of paving the way for the return of “looter mafia” networks that thrived under past regimes, while ignoring constitutional reforms. He alleges that costly elections without grassroots participation will only reinforce entrenched elites, perpetuating the same corruption the uprising sought to end. He also accused the government of bypassing the military on strategic issues, such as the proposed economic corridor through Chittagong Port.
Military and Political Calculations
Mazhar’s warning has stirred speculation over whether he is voicing unspoken concerns within the armed forces — the same institution that played a decisive role in Yunus’s appointment. Some analysts are sceptical, noting that Army Chief General Waqar-uz-Zaman has already signalled support for holding elections by December.
Still, the interim government faces a daunting balancing act. It has introduced some reforms and fixed an election schedule, yet law and order is deteriorating, the economy remains fragile, and Awami League-aligned forces are accused of fuelling unrest via social media to derail the transition. BNP’s rivals believe a fair election could crush the Awami League’s chances of a comeback. Jamaat, meanwhile, is threatening a boycott unless proportional representation is introduced — a demand BNP rejects.
Still, the interim government faces a daunting balancing act. It has introduced some reforms and fixed an election schedule, yet law and order is deteriorating, the economy remains fragile, and Awami League-aligned forces are accused of fuelling unrest via social media to derail the transition. BNP’s rivals believe a fair election could crush the Awami League’s chances of a comeback. Jamaat, meanwhile, is threatening a boycott unless proportional representation is introduced — a demand BNP rejects.
Storm Clouds Over the Political Landscape
The unity that drove Hasina from power is fracturing fast. If the election timetable is pushed without consensus, unrest could return — and the military could once again become the final arbiter. Mazhar hinted at this scenario, but history warns against romanticising military rule: past interventions have rarely delivered stability or democracy.
Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. Citizens want a credible, inclusive election. But if the political class continues its game of brinkmanship, the country could bypass the ballot box entirely — and find itself staring at the barrel of the barracks once again.
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