Saturday, 13 September, 2025
As the Dhaka University Central Students' Union (DUCSU) election 2025 draws near, analysis of social and digital media trends by SharedToday points to a highly competitive and fragmented contest. The era of single-panel dominance appears to be ending, with mixed results now emerging as the most likely outcome.
A Fragmented Landscape
The defining feature of this election is the evident disunity within the BGCS panel, which rose to prominence during the July uprising. Several key leaders, including Tahmid Al Mudasir, Ashiqur Rahman Jim, Abu Salehin Ayon, and Sanjana Afifa Aditi, have opted to run independently or align with rival panels. These internal divisions have prompted the resignations of prominent figures such as Moktosen Muktar, who cited frustration with “party-linked politics,” and Mahin Sarkar, now contesting for General Secretary under another independent banner. Abdul Kader, BGCS’s VP candidate, acknowledged that such fractures could undermine the panel’s prospects. Analysts note that this fragmentation threatens voter confidence in BGCS’s cohesion and effectiveness while increasing the likelihood of vote splitting.
JCD Gains Ground
The BGCS’s internal turmoil has provided a strategic advantage to the Jatiyatabadi Chhatra Dal (JCD). With VP candidate Md. Abidul Islam Khan and GS candidate Sheikh Tanvir Bari Hamim, JCD benefits from a well-organized, nationwide network aligned with the BNP. While activists from the July uprising are scattered across panels, JCD has consolidated support across multiple dormitories. Social media metrics show JCD enjoys strong organizational visibility and steady news coverage, indicating sustained momentum.
The Emergence of Independents
Meanwhile, the Independent Alliance led by Umama Fatema is capitalizing on BGCS’s fragmentation. With several prominent BGCS leaders now running independently, Umama’s panel is attracting voters disillusioned with party politics. Marketed as a “fresh alternative” with credibility stemming from the July movement, her campaign resonates with students seeking change and reform, positioning the panel as a formidable contender in this year’s polls.
Understanding Voter Psychology
SharedToday’s analysis suggests that the student electorate can be broadly categorized into three distinct groups:
Anti-establishment, movement-oriented voters (30–40%)
These students are driven by the spirit of the July movement and actively seek alternatives to panels associated with the BNP or Jamaat. Their support tends to favor candidates who project independence and reformist agendas.
Pragmatic or strategic voters (30%+)
This segment casts ballots with an eye on influence and resources. Many anticipate that panels aligned with JCD could wield greater leverage if the BNP comes to power nationally, shaping their voting decisions accordingly.
Ideological or niche supporters (20–30%)
Comprising smaller, dedicated bases, these voters remain loyal to specific ideologies. They back panels such as the Left Alliance, Shibir, or Odhikar, often prioritizing principle-driven agendas over immediate political expediency.
Possible Outcomes: Two Contending Scenarios
Analyzing the current dynamics, SharedToday outlines one likely scenario for the DUCSU election:
Scenario A – Fragmentation of the July Movement:
If the BGCS, Independent, and Odhikar panels contest separately, splitting the votes of movement-aligned students, the JCD could emerge as the frontrunner for both the VP and GS posts. In the VP race, JCD’s Abidul Islam Khan is projected to lead with roughly 38–42% of the vote, while Independent candidate Umama Fatema could secure around 25–28%. In the GS contest, JCD’s Sheikh Tanvir Bari Hamim is expected to have a decisive advantage, potentially capturing 40–45% of the vote, capitalizing on the BGCS panel’s internal divisions.
Scenario B – Consolidation of the July Movement:
If July movement activists coordinate their support through tactical voting, a mixed outcome at the top is likely. Under this scenario, Independent candidate Umama Fatema could secure the VP position with approximately 42–45% of the vote. Meanwhile, the GS race would remain closely contested, with JCD’s Sheikh Tanvir Bari Hamim projected at around 35–38% and a candidate backed by the movement capturing roughly 32–35%.
The outcome of the election ultimately depends on the students’ choices: will they unite to forge a new political force, or will their fragmentation give well-organized, traditional parties the opportunity to regain control? The decision rests in the hands of nearly 40,000 voters heading to the polls on September 9.
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As the Dhaka University Central Students' Union (DUCSU) election 2025 draws near, analysis of social and digital media trends by SharedToday points to a highly competitive and fragmented contest. The era of single-panel dominance appears to be ending, with mixed results now emerging as the most likely outcome.
A Fragmented Landscape
The defining feature of this election is the evident disunity within the BGCS panel, which rose to prominence during the July uprising. Several key leaders, including Tahmid Al Mudasir, Ashiqur Rahman Jim, Abu Salehin Ayon, and Sanjana Afifa Aditi, have opted to run independently or align with rival panels. These internal divisions have prompted the resignations of prominent figures such as Moktosen Muktar, who cited frustration with “party-linked politics,” and Mahin Sarkar, now contesting for General Secretary under another independent banner. Abdul Kader, BGCS’s VP candidate, acknowledged that such fractures could undermine the panel’s prospects. Analysts note that this fragmentation threatens voter confidence in BGCS’s cohesion and effectiveness while increasing the likelihood of vote splitting.
JCD Gains Ground
The BGCS’s internal turmoil has provided a strategic advantage to the Jatiyatabadi Chhatra Dal (JCD). With VP candidate Md. Abidul Islam Khan and GS candidate Sheikh Tanvir Bari Hamim, JCD benefits from a well-organized, nationwide network aligned with the BNP. While activists from the July uprising are scattered across panels, JCD has consolidated support across multiple dormitories. Social media metrics show JCD enjoys strong organizational visibility and steady news coverage, indicating sustained momentum.
The Emergence of Independents
Meanwhile, the Independent Alliance led by Umama Fatema is capitalizing on BGCS’s fragmentation. With several prominent BGCS leaders now running independently, Umama’s panel is attracting voters disillusioned with party politics. Marketed as a “fresh alternative” with credibility stemming from the July movement, her campaign resonates with students seeking change and reform, positioning the panel as a formidable contender in this year’s polls.
Understanding Voter Psychology
SharedToday’s analysis suggests that the student electorate can be broadly categorized into three distinct groups:
Anti-establishment, movement-oriented voters (30–40%)
These students are driven by the spirit of the July movement and actively seek alternatives to panels associated with the BNP or Jamaat. Their support tends to favor candidates who project independence and reformist agendas.
Pragmatic or strategic voters (30%+)
This segment casts ballots with an eye on influence and resources. Many anticipate that panels aligned with JCD could wield greater leverage if the BNP comes to power nationally, shaping their voting decisions accordingly.
Ideological or niche supporters (20–30%)
Comprising smaller, dedicated bases, these voters remain loyal to specific ideologies. They back panels such as the Left Alliance, Shibir, or Odhikar, often prioritizing principle-driven agendas over immediate political expediency.
Possible Outcomes: Two Contending Scenarios
Analyzing the current dynamics, SharedToday outlines one likely scenario for the DUCSU election:
Scenario A – Fragmentation of the July Movement:
If the BGCS, Independent, and Odhikar panels contest separately, splitting the votes of movement-aligned students, the JCD could emerge as the frontrunner for both the VP and GS posts. In the VP race, JCD’s Abidul Islam Khan is projected to lead with roughly 38–42% of the vote, while Independent candidate Umama Fatema could secure around 25–28%. In the GS contest, JCD’s Sheikh Tanvir Bari Hamim is expected to have a decisive advantage, potentially capturing 40–45% of the vote, capitalizing on the BGCS panel’s internal divisions.
Scenario B – Consolidation of the July Movement:
If July movement activists coordinate their support through tactical voting, a mixed outcome at the top is likely. Under this scenario, Independent candidate Umama Fatema could secure the VP position with approximately 42–45% of the vote. Meanwhile, the GS race would remain closely contested, with JCD’s Sheikh Tanvir Bari Hamim projected at around 35–38% and a candidate backed by the movement capturing roughly 32–35%.
The outcome of the election ultimately depends on the students’ choices: will they unite to forge a new political force, or will their fragmentation give well-organized, traditional parties the opportunity to regain control? The decision rests in the hands of nearly 40,000 voters heading to the polls on September 9.
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