A recent survey suggesting that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) commands just 16 per cent of public support, while Jamaat-e-Islami enjoys as much as 31 per cent, has triggered strong reactions from across the political spectrum, with questions raised over both methodology and motive.

The poll, titled “Public Opinion, Experiences, and Expectations, July 2025”, was jointly conducted by Voice for Reform and the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) and carried in several leading newspapers. Its key claims—that BNP’s standing is falling, Jamaat’s support has surged, and a large undecided bloc of voters persists—have been heavily contested.

Critics Accuse Surveyors of Political Bias

Opposition leaders, academics, and civil society figures have expressed disbelief at the figures, alleging that the effort is less about reflecting public opinion than reshaping it.

“It’s false propaganda. You can create such a survey sitting in your room since the details of methodology were not published,” said a senior leader of a left-wing political party. Several others noted that the report failed to disclose sample size, rural-urban distribution, or the socioeconomic profile of respondents—crucial factors in measuring party leanings in a country where over 60 per cent live in rural areas.

A professor of statistics at Dhaka University observed:

“It may be that the team chose areas populated by NCP and Jamaat supporters. If they disproportionately surveyed those clusters, BNP would naturally appear weaker. But to project those numbers as ‘national opinion’ is not only poor research—it’s political manipulation.”

Undecided Voters and the Question of ‘Silent’ BNP Support

Earlier reports from the same groups suggested that undecided voters were rising steadily, from 37.6 per cent in October 2024 to 48.5 per cent in July 2025. Interestingly, the survey interprets this as a decline in BNP support, rather than leaving open the possibility that disillusioned voters are withholding answers due to political uncertainty or lack of trust in surveyors.

Analysts believe the “undecided bloc” is overstated, noting that historically, many Bangladeshi respondents have hesitated to disclose political preferences—particularly in times of uncertainty, fearing reprisals or surveillance. One election monitoring expert remarked that such underreporting typically harms opposition parties more than incumbents:

“What looks like ‘undecided’ often turns decisively against the ruling establishment once people are safely inside voting booths. That has been the case repeatedly since 1991.”

Contradictions with Past Election Data

Observers also point to glaring contradictions between the new claims and past electoral history. In the 2008 general election—widely considered BNP’s worst-ever performance—the party still secured 32.8 per cent of the vote. Given the political vacuum created after Sheikh Hasina’s departure in early 2024, many expected BNP’s natural support base to rebound, not collapse.

To suggest BNP has shrunk to near half its historical minimum, analysts argue, would require extraordinary evidence of organisational collapse that is simply not visible on the ground. BNP rallies in major cities continue to draw large crowds, and grassroots networks in rural areas remain intact despite reported financial weakness.

Surveying as Political Warfare

The debate underscores a growing perception in Bangladesh that surveys are being wielded less as tools of social research and more as weapons in an “information war.” In recent years, surveys have increasingly been used to send political signals: announcing “declining support” for one party while amplifying the standing of new entrants, such as the National Citizen Party (NCP), which has been portrayed in this latest poll as a rising force.

One Dhaka-based political commentator described this as an attempt at “psychological engineering”:

“If you tell the public repeatedly that BNP is finished, people start internalising it. It then creates a bandwagon effect that benefits rivals. Surveys become a subtle way to tamper with the political mood.”

Lessons from Recent History

The controversy is not new. In the run-up to the January 2024 election, several supposedly independent polls had predicted a comfortable victory for Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League. Yet the election, largely boycotted by opposition parties, saw voter turnout estimated at barely five per cent. The polls, rather than revealing reality, served primarily to justify an electoral process that was widely rejected at home and abroad.

Following Hasina’s exit, an October 2024 BIGD survey put BNP at 16 per cent support and undecided voters at 38 per cent—even though a surge of public sympathy towards BNP was evident on the streets at the time. The July 2025 survey repeats the 16 per cent figure for BNP, reducing it further to 12 per cent in some versions, while dramatically boosting Jamaat’s share. This, critics argue, reflects a predetermined narrative rather than actual voter intention.

Erosion of Trust

The growing scepticism towards such surveys also reflects a deeper institutional problem. Bangladesh lacks a tradition of independent polling bodies with transparent methodologies. Instead, small research groups or donor-funded think tanks often release selective findings without peer review or proper methodological auditing.

As one academic concluded:

“These are not representative surveys. They are purposive or motivated exercises. Without transparency about sample design and execution, the results serve propaganda more than truth. The tragedy is that media outlets publish them uncritically, giving an aura of credibility.”

Bigger Question: Who Gains?

Ultimately, the backlash raises a broader issue: Why are resources invested in manufacturing perceptions of BNP’s decline rather than generating credible studies about voter priorities, economic policy, or governance failures?

The likely answer, analysts suggest, lies in political calculus. Presenting BNP as weak helps rivals consolidate their own position while discouraging international actors from engaging with it as a legitimate power contender. At the same time, presenting Jamaat or newer outfits like NCP as viable alternatives may fragment the opposition space, easing pressure on entrenched elites.

For now, the disputed survey has succeeded in sparking controversy—but it may have undermined its own credibility as well. As one seasoned political observer remarked:

“Surveys are supposed to reflect public opinion. But in Bangladesh, more often than not, they are used to manufacture it. This one is no exception.”