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Tuesday, 26 August, 2025

South Asia in Flux: Can Bangladesh Stay Stable?

  23 Aug 2025, 04:46

When Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar arrives in Dhaka on Saturday for a two-day visit, he brings more than a bundle of agreements. His presence signals a deeper shift in South Asia (SA)’s political landscape, where alliances are being redefined and old assumptions unsettled.

For Bangladesh, this visit is both an opportunity and a test: can the country remain stable and sustain its growth amid a rapidly changing regional order?

The question is far from theoretical. South Asia’s political landscape is being reshaped by the rise of populism and extremism, entrenched problems such as instability, corruption, and ethnic tensions, and shifting power balances fuelled by intensifying China–India rivalry. Key dynamics include patronage-driven governance, elite competition, eroding interstate trust, and the breakdown of multilateral cooperation—factors that together are driving the region toward greater fragmentation.

For Bangladesh, the stakes are particularly high, as the past six months have seen dramatic realignments in South Asia—especially in Dhaka’s relations with New Delhi. In August, Sheikh Hasina—long considered India’s most dependable ally—was ousted in a mass uprising, fundamentally reshaping the country’s domestic and foreign policy trajectory.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar. Photo : Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pakistan

Despite her removal, Hasina is accused of attempting to destabilise Bangladeshi politics from abroad, allegedly establishing an office in India—a claim denied by Prime Minister Modi’s government and contested by Dr Yunus’s administration. At the same time, India’s move to expel long-settled Muslim residents has added further strain to already fragile bilateral ties.

Soon after, India and China struck a border arrangement in Ladakh, the first easing of tensions since the 2020 clashes. More recently, Indian and Afghan officials met in Dubai to revive ties long frozen. Together, these developments underscore a region in motion.

Bangladesh has already begun recalibrating. Dhaka has eased visa restrictions for Pakistanis, launched direct sea links with Karachi, and lowered trade barriers. Later this month, it will even join Pakistan’s Aman naval exercise. High-level exchanges—including visits from Pakistan’s intelligence and foreign chiefs—mark a dramatic departure from the Hasina years, when ties remained locked in the shadow of 1971.

For India, this shift poses a challenge. For fifteen years, Dhaka was a dependable partner in counterterrorism, connectivity, and regional forums. That foundation has weakened. Bangladesh’s new leadership is signalling a more balanced approach, engaging not only Delhi but also Islamabad, Beijing, and smaller neighbours. This reflects public sentiment from the July uprising, when citizens demanded a foreign policy driven by national, not partisan, interests.

For Bangladesh, the stakes are particularly high, as the past six months have seen dramatic realignments in South Asia—especially in Dhaka’s relations with New Delhi. In August, Sheikh Hasina—long considered India’s most dependable ally—was ousted in a mass uprising, fundamentally reshaping the country’s domestic and foreign policy trajectory.

Delhi itself is constrained. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, weakened by the 2024 election, faces limits at home and abroad. His partnership with Washington is less assured under Trump’s second term, which is expected to be more transactional. Meanwhile, China is recalibrating—seeking calm along its periphery while bracing for deeper rivalry with the United States.

The regional chessboard is shifting on all sides. Pakistan, though burdened by economic woes and political instability, sees Dhaka’s new posture as an opening to repair decades of mistrust. Nepal and Bhutan are diversifying ties, the Maldives has expelled Indian troops in favour of Beijing, Sri Lanka has swung left with a new president, and Myanmar’s junta is losing ground to ethnic armed groups—potentially reshaping Bangladesh’s eastern frontier.

Amid this turbulence, Bangladesh faces multiple risks. Its uneasy dependence on India resembles what some analysts call a “political Stockholm syndrome”: mistrust and resentment tempered by geography and economic necessity. Overreliance on China or Pakistan, however, could bring new vulnerabilities. The safest course lies in diversification—building ties across the board while avoiding entanglement in rivalries.

Yet this will be no easy task. South Asia’s politics are increasingly shaped by populism, nationalism, and ideological extremism, eroding regional cooperation and weakening institutions like SAARC. For smaller states like Bangladesh, fractured domestic politics create openings for outside interference.

Looking ahead, turbulence seems inevitable. Afghanistan’s orientation remains uncertain, Pakistan’s internal volatility persists, India may adopt a more assertive posture, and Dhaka itself must still consolidate legitimacy after Hasina’s fall.

As Henry Kissinger once noted, “If you don’t know where you are going, every road will get you nowhere.” South Asia today reflects that uncertainty. Bangladesh, caught in the crosscurrents, cannot afford drift. Its leaders must forge a national consensus on foreign policy that transcends partisanship and meets popular demands for sovereignty.

The year 2025 will be decisive. Surrounded by shifting power equations and renewed regional rivalries, Bangladesh’s stability will depend not on external assurances but on domestic resilience and diplomatic dexterity. In a region as unsettled as South Asia, that may be its hardest challenge yet.

Comments

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South Asia in Flux: Can Bangladesh Stay Stable?

  23 Aug 2025, 04:46

When Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar arrives in Dhaka on Saturday for a two-day visit, he brings more than a bundle of agreements. His presence signals a deeper shift in South Asia (SA)’s political landscape, where alliances are being redefined and old assumptions unsettled.

For Bangladesh, this visit is both an opportunity and a test: can the country remain stable and sustain its growth amid a rapidly changing regional order?

The question is far from theoretical. South Asia’s political landscape is being reshaped by the rise of populism and extremism, entrenched problems such as instability, corruption, and ethnic tensions, and shifting power balances fuelled by intensifying China–India rivalry. Key dynamics include patronage-driven governance, elite competition, eroding interstate trust, and the breakdown of multilateral cooperation—factors that together are driving the region toward greater fragmentation.

For Bangladesh, the stakes are particularly high, as the past six months have seen dramatic realignments in South Asia—especially in Dhaka’s relations with New Delhi. In August, Sheikh Hasina—long considered India’s most dependable ally—was ousted in a mass uprising, fundamentally reshaping the country’s domestic and foreign policy trajectory.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar. Photo : Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pakistan

Despite her removal, Hasina is accused of attempting to destabilise Bangladeshi politics from abroad, allegedly establishing an office in India—a claim denied by Prime Minister Modi’s government and contested by Dr Yunus’s administration. At the same time, India’s move to expel long-settled Muslim residents has added further strain to already fragile bilateral ties.

Soon after, India and China struck a border arrangement in Ladakh, the first easing of tensions since the 2020 clashes. More recently, Indian and Afghan officials met in Dubai to revive ties long frozen. Together, these developments underscore a region in motion.

Bangladesh has already begun recalibrating. Dhaka has eased visa restrictions for Pakistanis, launched direct sea links with Karachi, and lowered trade barriers. Later this month, it will even join Pakistan’s Aman naval exercise. High-level exchanges—including visits from Pakistan’s intelligence and foreign chiefs—mark a dramatic departure from the Hasina years, when ties remained locked in the shadow of 1971.

For India, this shift poses a challenge. For fifteen years, Dhaka was a dependable partner in counterterrorism, connectivity, and regional forums. That foundation has weakened. Bangladesh’s new leadership is signalling a more balanced approach, engaging not only Delhi but also Islamabad, Beijing, and smaller neighbours. This reflects public sentiment from the July uprising, when citizens demanded a foreign policy driven by national, not partisan, interests.

For Bangladesh, the stakes are particularly high, as the past six months have seen dramatic realignments in South Asia—especially in Dhaka’s relations with New Delhi. In August, Sheikh Hasina—long considered India’s most dependable ally—was ousted in a mass uprising, fundamentally reshaping the country’s domestic and foreign policy trajectory.

Delhi itself is constrained. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, weakened by the 2024 election, faces limits at home and abroad. His partnership with Washington is less assured under Trump’s second term, which is expected to be more transactional. Meanwhile, China is recalibrating—seeking calm along its periphery while bracing for deeper rivalry with the United States.

The regional chessboard is shifting on all sides. Pakistan, though burdened by economic woes and political instability, sees Dhaka’s new posture as an opening to repair decades of mistrust. Nepal and Bhutan are diversifying ties, the Maldives has expelled Indian troops in favour of Beijing, Sri Lanka has swung left with a new president, and Myanmar’s junta is losing ground to ethnic armed groups—potentially reshaping Bangladesh’s eastern frontier.

Amid this turbulence, Bangladesh faces multiple risks. Its uneasy dependence on India resembles what some analysts call a “political Stockholm syndrome”: mistrust and resentment tempered by geography and economic necessity. Overreliance on China or Pakistan, however, could bring new vulnerabilities. The safest course lies in diversification—building ties across the board while avoiding entanglement in rivalries.

Yet this will be no easy task. South Asia’s politics are increasingly shaped by populism, nationalism, and ideological extremism, eroding regional cooperation and weakening institutions like SAARC. For smaller states like Bangladesh, fractured domestic politics create openings for outside interference.

Looking ahead, turbulence seems inevitable. Afghanistan’s orientation remains uncertain, Pakistan’s internal volatility persists, India may adopt a more assertive posture, and Dhaka itself must still consolidate legitimacy after Hasina’s fall.

As Henry Kissinger once noted, “If you don’t know where you are going, every road will get you nowhere.” South Asia today reflects that uncertainty. Bangladesh, caught in the crosscurrents, cannot afford drift. Its leaders must forge a national consensus on foreign policy that transcends partisanship and meets popular demands for sovereignty.

The year 2025 will be decisive. Surrounded by shifting power equations and renewed regional rivalries, Bangladesh’s stability will depend not on external assurances but on domestic resilience and diplomatic dexterity. In a region as unsettled as South Asia, that may be its hardest challenge yet.

Comments

Dar–Khaleda meeting marks rare political engagement in Dhaka
Pakistani Deputy PM in Dhaka: A Cycle of History?
Bangladesh Battles Relentless Fever Outbreak, Youngest Suffer Most
Will Political Deadlock Jeopardise February National Polls?
Is BNP Facing a Threat from Islamic Alliance in the Battle for Seats?